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To: cogitator
Your hero speaks.

I guess he has to deliver the Kyoto-bucks to his sponsors before this decade long cooling trend becomes common knowledge.

3 posted on 06/23/2008 12:26:48 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (We have people in power with desire for evil.)
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To: Carry_Okie
Your hero speaks.

Calling him "my hero" is a misattribution of both his importance and my view of the issue. I'd prefer that such statements of opinion be unstated.

I guess he has to deliver the Kyoto-bucks to his sponsors before this decade long cooling trend becomes common knowledge.

There is no "decade-long" cooling trend, because the 1998 El Nino caused temperatures to be about 0.2 C higher than the warming trendline. I.e., if the 1998 El Nino had not happened (providing a convenient starting point for erroneous skeptical arguments), the warming trend which began in the 1990s would have been observed to continue. In that "theoretical" case, 2005 would have the position as the warmest year on record -- and there would be none of this skeptical fluff about a "decade-long" cooling trend.


The blue line is what matters here. Since 2005 was the warmest year recently, you can see that the globe is currently experiencing a temperature plateau (see below).

Has global warming stopped? (article is good; comments are inane)

This year, as is well-known, is cooler (i.e., below the trendline) due primarily to the influence of the La Nina event. So while 2008 might pull the trendline down a little bit, I have confidence (unfortunately) that the ensuing years will be warmer. I've predicted several times that the next year with a normal-to-strong El Nino will set a new global temperature record on all three major indices; I see no reason to change that prediction. When it does happen, this "decade-long" cooling trend line of argument will (thankfully) be terminated.

50 posted on 06/23/2008 8:01:57 AM PDT by cogitator
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