That is exactly what is going to happen. In 1986, oil was $26 a barrel, down from $34. The American Oil Industry spent a ton of money to gear up for oil shales. Then Opec dropped the price of crude to $8 per barrel for a year and wiped out the resource plays in the US (and also wiping out a lot of domestic companies.) The will not let us become sufficent unless the American people allow it—i.e. set a floor on crude prices at about $50 per barrel.
Rather than tax the American taxpayer to spur development, why not offer tax cuts to companies to develop and produce it?
I think that's the key.
Except "allow it" should read "force it".
As soon as a presidential candidate, a few governors, and 70-odd percent of the citizenry began to talk seriously about opening our own resources up - arab producers decided that more supply might be a good thing.
A good thing for them.
Somehow, someway, oil price will come down to something we will tolerate and producing states have every reason to believe we would - again - drop our energy efforts as soon as that happened.
What's needed is to open our fields, build refineries, and develop every other viable alternate energy source possible: it would cost tax money and entrepreneurial effort as well, but independence and security are better goals than most others I can think of.