You're right, though -- if we start to act like we're about to produce (keeping in mind there's a rig shortage AND a shortage of drill ships...), all the tension goes right away from the crude mkt, and prices should go to clearing levels fairly quickly.
We can accelerate the process, too. Have CFTC reclassify banks-acting-as-agents for clients as ''large specs'' instead of their current classification as ''commercials" (aka hedgers). Specs must obey position limits; commercials are not even bound by position limits and hence can (and have, you betcha, which is part of the problem) quite literally buy all the crude futures they want.
Net result: upwards of 1.1 billion barrels of ''paper'' crude gets sold back into the mkt in 30-90 days' time, and the price drops $40-50/bbl ... and all without even setting one rig. Add to that a coherent and credible restarting of crude production in this country, and you've got $50-60 crude again.
I agree that the Saudis would like to keep the price where it’s at but if by lowering the price, they could discourage the American people from following through on opening new areas of drilling, I think they would.
Pro-drilling polls are rising because of the 4 dollar gas. That’s one of the nice aspects of the high oil prices. It is painful, but manageable if it increases our production.