I didn’t think his argument was naive. He succinctly stated the problem without going into a paragraph or two of technical details explaining weight distribution, tire footprints, runway strength, etc...
I think the weight and size issues are very important, with the weight being critical. Weight is a crucial factor in all airplane operations. Airport and airfield design uses weight and one of the main factors in determining overall operational capabilities. Take away 20% of my available airfields and that is a BIG hit.
“My best scientific wild guess is that the NG-EADS aircraft will be unable to operate out of at least 20% of the airfields that could accommodate the right-sized Boeing tanker”.
Even according to the author he’s just guessing, even guessing wild. I would like to see some Air Force numbers if that would be OK with you.