Iran on Its Heels: In Tehran's Setbacks, an Opportunity in Iraq

Washington Post ^ | 19 June 2008 | Vali Nasr

[shrinkermd]

It was easy for Tehran to do both when a sectarian war united Shiites against a common Sunni enemy. But sectarian violence has largely ceased, and Sunni insurgents and al-Qaeda are no longer imminent threats. Throughout 2007, militias challenged the government as they terrorized neighborhoods in southern Iraq, disrupting commerce and assassinating clerics as well as government and provincial officials.

The Quds Force and its backers in Tehran expected the truce to hold, allowing Iran to continue to build militias while also supporting the Baghdad government. Ali Larijani, then head of Iran's Supreme Council for National Security (now the speaker of parliament), and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Tehran's influential mayor, were among those who argued that Iran should stop seeing Iraq through the lens of its conflict with the United States, stop supporting the Mahdi Army and instead throw its weight behind the Baghdad government. But moderate voices were drowned out by the drumbeat of war in Lebanon and growing tensions with America over the nuclear issue.

Maliki's recent push into Basra showed that Iran's policy was untenable. Not only are its two goals at war, but Iran has alienated the Maliki government and mainstream Shiites. One Shiite politician asked me, "How can the government succeed if Iran undermines its effectiveness?" They recognize that Iranian-backed militias were a threat not to Sunnis but Shiites in the government. It was Iranian-made rockets that rained down on the homes of Shiite leaders in the Green Zone. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who refused to even speak with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during his visit to Iraq, condemned militia violence and said that only government forces should carry guns. Criticism of Iran was rife in conversations I had in Iraq this month, even among those usually protective of Iran's role there

[Maringa]

It could also be that all the factions are waiting for Obama to be elected and then wreck havoc after he pulls the troops out....

[naturalized]

The undeclared victory. The media will wait until the Obamanation is elected.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Maliki is rolling them up:

Iraq says deadline for Shiite fighters 'successful'

[Marine_Uncle]

Things shall continue to improve. Now if the upcoming provincial elective process can be found to be mostly successful, it will add to the stakes in the heart of the doubters.
But let there be no mistake in the over all evaluations. There are millions of still discontent Iraqi out there, in varying degrees. It will be a few years before most of Iraq can see the full benefits of signing on to the new government.
Success in relieving the human misery of many in that land will take time. Good government policies shall help Iraq mend over time.
But surely many now see the light at the end of the tunnel. They have witnessed in real time what some would have never dreamed possible. They are on the mend. Sadly such a small percentage of Americans and other western nations can see the transition from hell to a democracy take place.