There are no riots in China!
Posted on 06/10/2008 10:22:39 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
On the other hand, high oil price would indirectly do damage to global finance because damage to real economy do have a serious impact on finance. Its highly leveraged nature only make it worse.
Ping!
cannot directly roll back reckless global finance,
every cloud has a silver lining.
Life in America is about to become a helluva lot more expensive for people who have gotten used to paying Wal-Mart prices.
It is inevitable. If U.S. inspired global credit economy hits a wall, So does Chinese economy.
No, it really won’t be that bad. We will have to start looking for locally or nationally made items in place of all that Chinese junk. The result will mean more jobs here in the United States.
We really need to learn to do without so much plastic, too, as it is made from petroleum. As a nation we are imaginative; I’m sure we’ll pull through splendidly.
Yup.
Now comes the $65,535.00 question: When (if) it does.... what happens in China? Do we see riots as their economy goes into a serious reversal for a time? Do we see a war break out in southeast Asia as they go reaching for commodities and assets they need to prop up their economy?
Or do they un-peg the Yuan? And convert their reserves to some other currency, putting the last nail in the dollar’s coffin?
There’s all sorts of possible outcomes to this scenario. None of them particularly pleasant in the short term.
Probably not soon enough to get the financial bubble uninterrupted and China's ambition unimpeded.
If you cared about continued growth, you have to think long and hard about this kind of prospect for a long time, instead of trying to come up with some ideas on a fly now.
There are no riots in China!
Innovation is needed and I don't see any vision from our so-called leaders to provide the proper investment incentives only more nanny statism.
An excellent, excellent article. I’m sure investors and economists are doing their best to quantify these observations.
And yet another good reason for domestic oil exploration and processing.
A couple observations:
- China has been developing the regional market of SE Asia for many years, and seemingly just as aggressively as in any Wal-Mart. For almost any consumer good there is always the choice of “cheap Chinese” or a more expensive and higher quality alternative (that are not from China, e.g, bicycles). This has been going on for at least the last 5 years.
- I’m a bit dubious of the shipping prices mentioned in the article. I’m no expert, but in my limited experience a container load of “stuff” (e.g., furniture) was about $3,700 from Singapore to Baltimore, and I priced a 32-foot pleasure boat shipment at about $5,000 from Baltimore to Bangkok. While I can understand that Columbian carnations and Dutch tulips might get much more expensive to ship via air, it just seems unlikely that sea transport would actually have doubled due to fuel costs alone.
The business of airfreighting perishable goods is going seriously awry. Most of the cut flowers sold in Britain come from East African and Latin American plantations.
So I infer that the flowers are airlifted into Britain.
“So I infer that the flowers are airlifted into Britain.”
Yes it has become a big business for much of South America. Especially Colombia. It is just a further extension of the airlifted fruits and vegetables to markets so that people have strawberries and such year around.
Brilliant post by you! The article is also very interesting and something that’s obvious. High transport cost will curtail global integration. OK by me
That in of itself is a result of greed, not common sense, and therefore waste of labor and resources is quadrupled which in turns stagnates other sectors of the global economy, domestic as well.
IOW, such philosophies denies increase in the standard of living of many world wide.
It may seem a joke, but if the year round flower business is hurt I wouldn’t be surprised if much of South American devolves into further Socialism and many farmers go back to cocaine growing. This is one of those industries that has helped get farmers away from drug production. Further helping Colombia win the PR campaign against FARC.
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