2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, June 9, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[angelrod]

If McCain wins PA, he wins by 2 electoral votes, 270-268.

[ErnBatavia]

Hey could you get me a double double with a Coke please? I’ll pay you back. :)

Ain't happenin' fellas.....Chizzburgers belong to me...only.

Methodology: Bat orders via the drive-thru, with "everythang"....Bat drives the 10 minutes to the homefront dining amphitheater....Bat then dumps/tosses the pickles, onions, tomatoes and proceeds to consume said Chizzburger with the absorbed flavors of the dumped stuff.

It works; trust me...I guess it's what you'd call a 'plain double-double'...

[Political Junkie Too]

I found the last bug in my model. Our expected values finally match. Nevada was getting New York's probabilities. I have reading glasses now. The V and Y are much clearer. Past values are corrected.

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	241.05	20.18%
14-Jan	235.29	14.70%
21-Jan	234.76	14.66%
28-Jan	236.58	15.44%
4-Feb	236.26	15.41%
11-Feb	237.25	16.43%
18-Feb	230.61	12.69%
25-Feb	233.56	15.44%
3-Mar	234.54	16.27%
10-Mar	240.26	22.49%
17-Mar	244.58	24.60%
24-Mar	249.73	28.50%
31-Mar	252.18	30.87%
7-Apr	248.97	27.60%
14-Apr	249.24	27.62%
21-Apr	247.86	25.60%
28-Apr	251.65	29.06%
5-May	250.84	28.07%
12-May	252.31	29.25%
19-May	248.73	25.99%
26-May	250.15	27.10%
2-Jun	248.98	26.46%
9-Jun	247.87	26.81%

-PJ

[SSS Two]

How does the fact that each state contest is not an independent variable fit into your analysis? Many of the states are highly correlated.

If McCain wins California, he doesn't need it -- the election is a blowout. Yes, there's a 12% chance McCain win California, but if he wins California, he'll also win Pennsylvania, Michigan etc. Because the correlation is high, I'm not sure taking 12% of 55 ev's is very meaningful.

[MinorityRepublican]

McCain is not going to win PA, period. Philly machine will make sure of that.

[Political Junkie Too]

My first thought is to say that this is not modeling the election, it is modeling InTrade's betting on the election. At InTrade, each state is an independent auction. Right now, many of the states are in the "safe" category, with probabilities in the extreme ends of the range (<=15% or >=85%).

Taking 12% of California's 55 EV's is the basic calculation, but the probability of winning is based on calculating the S-curve over 20,000 random simulations and seeing where the 270-point is. If McCain wins California, that will raise his probability of winning, but he will only win California 12% of the time in the simulations.

-PJ