Posted on 06/03/2008 12:52:18 PM PDT by Mr. K
FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) - A noted hurricane researcher is predicting eight hurricanes will form in the Atlantic this year, and says four of them will be major. Tuesday's forecast by William Gray and his team of researchers at Colorado State University calls for a very active season, with 15 named storms, including tropical storm Arthur, which formed on May 31.
Gray, a former Colorado State University climatologist, pioneered the seasonal predictions in 1984. His team's revised outlook called for the same number of hurricanes as their April forecast.
Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes. [posters note: it does not say how many actually occurred- 5]
Warmer water temperatures in the Atlantic and low sea level pressure contributed to the prediction of a busy season.
"Conditions in the tropical Atlantic look quite favorable for an active hurricane season," said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the university's forecast.
Last June, the team predicted 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major. The year produced 14 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of them major.
The forecasters used a new statistical model this year, which they say has shown considerable improvement over the previous model. [posters note: I guess it would have to be]
The team said there is a 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall somewhere on the U.S. coastline, compared to the long-term average probability of 52 percent.
The Associated Press reported May 31 that emergency management agencies in every coastal state from Texas to Maine do not rely on Gray's forecasts in planning for the hurricane season. But they did say they appreciate the forecasts' role in getting people thinking about the upcoming season. [thats reassuring]
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
there...fixed it
Of course, didn’t they decide last year to start naming storms when they were in the formation stage? Look for more of the same this year.
Well, Gray (a Global Warming Denier!) has exactly the same forecast as his early April 9 forecast, and therefore I hazard a guess that he could be in the money this year, with stable indicators. I think some of the wacky years were when his indicators were moving targets, and each successive forecast was significantly different than the prior one, and of course none of them were right.
Somebody's confused here - that prediction is for 2008, which is upcoming. They recited last year's predictions with:
Last June, the team predicted 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major.
They did indeed recite the actual count.
Can I play, too? I predict 10 hurricanes,3 major. Let me know next fall if I win.
I'll go with the Sun's current very low sunspot activity and predict just the opposite, fewer hurricanes and less intense storms.
No Vegas Line, no credibility.
With all the tropical weather threads that hurricane season brings to this site, one of us really should have thought of this:
It's not copyrighted, so why not swipe the idea and do our own pool here on FR?
This Illinois researcher, using his new model, predicts 9 Atlantic hurricanes, three major.
I’m predicting hot weather in much of Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona and Neveda in late June, July and August. I’m also predicted that these temps will be 40-50 degrees higher than 6-7 months ago.
What was his record for the past three years?
I'll go for that if the winner of the pool will donate their winnings to FR. We owe this site much and that would be one way of donating that would be sort of fun and still benefit FR.
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