Barely. And, at that, Francois managed to grab 49% of the popular vote.
"McCain can beat Obama."
Remains to be seen. If Obama is stupid enough (and I believe he is) to have our former First Bitch as his VP, McCain's chances go down. Way down.
"Conservatives were pissed at Bush then, still are."
That was then, this is now. Conservatives were pissed, as you say, but not so pissed many of them wouldn't still vote for him. Now, the same conservatives are even more pissed at Bush but are justifiably enraged at McCain, and will not be voting for him.
Lesson soon to be learned: never piss off the conservative base. You are bound to need them sooner or later.