Everything I’ve read looks like 98 won’t pass. But... it probably depends on what the turnout is. I think this may be an all-time low turnout, except maybe in CD4, LOL.
I’ll see if I can find the poll numbers.
Prop. 98 failing, 99 a toss-up - Field Poll
Charles Burress, Chronicle Staff Writer
Thursday, May 29, 2008
In the battle over two state propositions on Tuesday's ballot that would restrict government seizure of private property, nearly a majority of California voters support the more limited Proposition 99 while giving thumbs down to Proposition 98, which would abolish rent control, according to a Field Poll released today.
A survey of 660 likely voters conducted May 17-26 found 48 percent favoring Prop. 99, with 30 percent opposed and 22 percent undecided, according to the poll results. Those supporting Prop. 98 stood at 33 percent, with 43 percent opposed and 24 percent undecided.
Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said he'd give Prop. 99 a better than even chance of passing. He noted that it still lacks the needed majority of voters and that most undecided voters end up voting no on state propositions, but he said that he nevertheless expects enough undecided voters to vote yes.
The results contrast with the two surveys by the Public Policy Institute of California that showed declining support for both propositions between March and May. Those polls showed support among likely voters for Prop. 99 declining to 44 percent from 53 percent, while support for Prop. 98 fell to 30 percent from 37 percent.
The Public Policy Institute's more recent poll surveyed 1,086 likely voters from May 12-18. The Field Poll results announced today are from that organization's only survey on the two measures.
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