Peak Oil: An Idea Whose Time Is Up

IBD ^ | May 28, 2008

[wardaddy]

yes....if one studies the plethora os US oil consumption charts you will find a dip in 1980-81 when btw we were also having that lovely 15% plus inflation that you may or may not be old enough to remember.

then consumption rose back to more or less 79 levels a few years later in the mid 80s and has stayed basically flat give or take a bit since then

and has actually gone down as a percentage of GDP

a fact that drives Envirowackos and the left nuts

I lived this era. We made the changes folks clamored for.

But we quit drilling and refining to please the Greeens and here we are.

10 years ago, Clinton vetoed Anwar and nobody ahs permitted a new refinaery since the late 70s....and here we are.

China and India and things like Chavez and lowered Iraqi production just make it worse.

Bush is screwing up not pushing some remedy even if short term.

I drive an F250, my diesel is now 4.80 and I burn 75-100 bucks every other day in business. This will become inflationary.

Here we go again.

[thackney]

Not doubled, but US petroleum consumption has risen 36% since 1983. When you cherry pick the years, you can make all kinds of implications.

For the past 25 years, US petroleum consumption has averaged an increase of 1.2% a year.

[wardaddy]

When you cherry pick the years, you can make all kinds of implications.

that works both ways thackney doesn't it?

there is no doubt by any chart's measure that per capita consumption is actually down

and what about comparing consumption from earlier than 1979 with today?

btw....this is not my notion, I first heard Rush railing about it

[wardaddy]

remarkable considering our pop growth.....guess you can tell i don't blame consumption and don't think many conservatives would...

[RightWhale]

Blame part of $135-a-barrel oil on the increased demand in China and India,

Saudi now consumes more oil than India. Seems we are well into Peak Oil. It began last November. This is Peak Oil. This is what Peak Oil is like.

[thackney]

Again, as I previously pointed out we changed from using so much oil in our electric power generation.

If we skip the early 80s and only look at the trends for the past 20 years, petroleum consumption rises and average of 1.1% instead of 1.2% Gasoline consumption rises 1.3% and distillates (diesel and heating oil) rises 1.8%.

If we go further back in time looking at 1977 to 2007 we get a smaller increase of 0.6% in total average increase, 1% average gasoline increase and 1% average distillates increase.

But to ignore the change in the trends when we moved away from using much petroleum for electrical power generation is misleading in predicting future growth.

U.S. Finished Motor Gasoline Product Supplied
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mgfupus2a.htm

U.S. Distillate Fuel Oil Product Supplied
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mdiupus2a.htm

[thackney]

Unless that chart is inflation adjusted dollars, it just means prices have gone up.

[mountainlion]

I think I have figured part of it out. 24.8/capita/year is a flat line which makes it look like the total consumption is steady. Since the population has grown the total consumption has grown but personal usage has stayed the same. I liked the source and will study it more later. I am building a wood gas generator to power a stationary engine at present during daylight.

[thackney]

guess you can tell i don't blame consumption

Are you ignoring that oil is a global fungible commoditiy and we have to buy most of ours from foreign sources, competing with the world market? And most of the new growth is coming from less developed countries, not the US?

And that growth is expected to continue.

[Flying Circus]

I was asking that 2 years ago about housing and here we are now.

[wardaddy]

i’m not ignoring anything.

i’m relaying what Rush said about US petroleum consumption remaining steady since the last oil “crunch” in the late 70s

you can parse that however suits you

btw..if you look upthread I indeed did mention India and China

the Left and Western Civ deconstructors would like to blame us but I’m not buying.

it’s actually remarkable that out consumption has been steady considering our pop growth which has nearly doubled

[free_for_now]

BTW, the perceived risk of much lower crude oil prices [based on the belief that peak oil is a myth] is part of the reason that the alternatives aren't attracting the investment that they should. Who would make a multi billion dollar capital investment if they believed it could be rendered worthless based on a whim by a goof ball in Venezuela or Saudi Arabia?

Tough to make those kinds of investments when the dollar is all over the place. Todays oil price in GOLD is about 7 barrels per ounce. this is up a bit, but clearly much of the oil price increase comes from the Treasury's handling of the dollar. The gold price has not risen far enough to convince me that the price is as high as it is today for any reason other than the price pressures that are caused by a lag between increased demand and increased output.

[spanalot]

“Its got all the earmarks of a classic bubble”

And then some - we already know that over $50/barrel, we got 200 years worth of oil in Montana - and dont even get me started on why we are not drilling offshore of NJ, Florida, Calif.

Is it because the beaches in Miss, Tx, and La are covered in oil spill?

[RightWhale]

Any feel for the rate of production possible for the oil shale?

[spanalot]

It depends on how many animal worshippers we need to lock up.

[RightWhale]

We are at yet another critical point in civilization and it appears that the animists peak at those points. They are mostly harmless and annoying, more useful as indicators than as driving forces.