Latest rasmussen national poll has 42% of the jewish vote going to McCain. Bush has 13% and still won, so do the math.
Obama will never be president.
I also would never rule out the "I hate my Jewish heritage" crowd showing up to shoot themselves in the foot once again. You would think the Hamas leader's endorsement would be enough, but never count out total brain damage. In Texas we have the " I hunt every year and own 32 guns but my dad always votes Democrat" crowd that still votes against God, guts and guns anyway.
AFAIK Bush had 26% in 2004. But McCains numbers are of Reaganesque proportions. I think only Eisenhower got a few more.