They've likely cut back their hedges some, too, over the past couple of years. After all, who wouldn't love his product going up 30-odd per cent in that time frame, right?
User hedging? That's a dog's dinner. Some users are geniuses at hedging -- Southwest and a couple of other airlines come to mind immediately, although most of their early-2000s hedges have run out.
Utility companies are usually very sharp when they hedge. Amazingly, not all of them do, or do so on a sometimes-yes, sometimes-no basis. This astonishes me, but I suppose a lot of them are price-insensitive because they've been granted automatic rate adjustment powers by their state goobermint. Another instance of goobermint NOT serving the citizenry.
Some users are just idiots about hedging. American Airlines is a classic example. In 2002, they point-blank refused to become aggressive about locking in costs...with the all-too-obvious sequal.
If Ahmaneedjihad and the mullets try to close the Straits, I believe they'll find out in short order that they've bit the big one. So, to that extent, ''no'', I don't think hedgers are all that concerned with such an event.
Looks like the Union Act may be about to go away, after 301 years. No weeping here, I assure you!
I don’t see how a disciplined hedging program could foresee the massive price movement we just experienced without the prediction of a sudden and dramatic supply to consumption problem. As you have stated, the Energy hedgers are all slap happy and marveling at their good fortune. Still leaves the true culprit undetermined. And who would have the capital to cause such a move ?