Iran Sets Off Nuclear Race In The Middle East

The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 5-21-2008 | David Blair

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Iran sets off nuclear race in the Middle East

By David Blair, Diplomatic Editor
Last Updated: 12:49AM BST 21/05/2008

Iran's neighbours began their nuclear programmes within months of Tehran's decision to start enriching uranium, according to a new report.

Iran's stance has raised widespread doubts about its real intentions under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's leadership

In the 11 months that followed the onset of this procedure in Iran in 2006, 13 countries across the Middle East drew up new plans – or revived old ones – for building nuclear power stations.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies believes they were acting "in the shadow of Iran" and preparing for Tehran's possible entry into the nuclear weapons club.

All the proposed nuclear programmes are civilian schemes designed to generate electricity. At present, there is no question of any international safeguards being breached. Yet if Iran were to test a nuclear bomb, every country in the Middle East would be forced to re-assess its defence policies.

The IISS report argues that Arab countries may have embarked on civil nuclear programmes in order to acquire the option of building a bomb in the future.

"Iran's programme could become a powerful regional proliferation driver, building on regional rivalry, security concerns and one-upmanship," said John Chipman, the IISS chief executive.

"For the time being, these considerations are contributing to a regional surge in interest in nuclear energy. The question is how to keep this interest confined to purely civilian nuclear programmes."

By continuing to enrich uranium, Iran is breaking four United Nations resolutions, including three that have imposed economic sanctions on the regime. While Iran says its motives are peaceful, this highly sensitive procedure is classic "dual use" technology.

Enriching uranium could either produce fuel for nuclear power stations – or weapons-grade uranium for building warheads which could be delivered within a 930-mile radius using existing missiles.

Iran's stance has raised widespread doubts about its real intentions under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's leadership.

The IISS believes that Tehran is seeking a "nuclear weapons capability". Arab countries have a long history of rivalry with Persian Iran. In particular, the Sunni monarchies of the Gulf are deeply suspicious of Tehran's revolutionary Shia regime. They blame Iran for stirring unrest among their own Shia populations.

Saudi Arabia, the leading Sunni power, would be especially disturbed by a nuclear-armed Iran.

But the IISS believes that Egypt, which already possesses a solid grounding in nuclear technology, could be the first to build a bomb. "If any country in the region were to follow Iran in developing a latent nuclear weapons capability, however, Egypt may be the most likely candidate," said Mr Chipman.

Israel, which has had nuclear weapons for about 40 years, would also be forced to reappraise its position. Mr Ahmadinejad has pledged to wipe the Jewish state "from the pages of history".

Officially, Israel maintains a calculated ambiguity about its nuclear arsenal, neither confirming nor denying its existence. In practice, Israel has between 100 and 200 warheads, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Mark Fitzpatrick, an IISS fellow, said that Israel might respond to a nuclear-armed Iran by formally announcing its possession of a nuclear deterrent.

This dramatic step would have grave repercussions in the Middle East.

Arab governments would come under still greater pressure to build nuclear weapons of their own. In this way, a nuclear arms race, begun by Iran and fuelled by Israel, could unfold in the world's most volatile region.

But the IISS said that most Arab countries had begun their nuclear power ambitions "from a very low base", lacking essential technology and trained scientists. There was still time to "put in place a robust regime" of safeguards to prevent any civilian programme from being used as a cover to build a bomb.

But the unavoidable danger was that civilian nuclear plans would generate the "infrastructure" and a "cadre" of trained scientists that could be put to military use.

[allmost]

I think Bush will do something before he’s out of office. Doesn’t seem like the type to leave it to his successor. Even if it’s just building a solid determined coalition. I think it might be more than that though.

[FlingWingFlyer]

It appears as though we’re gonna have “hope” after November. I’ll be hopin’ they don’t nuke northeastern Arizona.