Warmer Planet May Mean Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes

National Geographic Channel ^ | 5-18-2008 | Mason Inman

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Warmer planet may mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes

NewScientist.com news service
Mason Inman

Contrary to the widespread view that a warming world will bring more hurricanes, a controversial new study suggests the number of cyclones could actually drop in the North Atlantic.

Hurricanes have become a lightning rod for arguments over what global warming might have in store. Most researchers agree that, since 1950, the number of hurricanes forming over the Atlantic has increased, and that since at least since 1980, they have become fiercer.

Many studies have blamed the increase in Atlantic hurricanes on increasing sea-surface temperatures, which fuel the storms. However, other ocean basins have not seen a similar increase in hurricanes.

Storm predictions

Tom Knutson and colleagues at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, US, built a computer model to simulate the formation of North Atlantic hurricanes, based on observed sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions.

Tropical storms and hurricanes formed spontaneously in the model, following much the same tracks as real storms do.

They also found that the model predicted fairly closely the number of North Atlantic hurricanes over the past 25 years – with 162 predicted storms, as opposed to 143 recorded. The strength of the most severe storms was not predicted, however.

Next they fed the model predictions of how Atlantic waters are likely to warm with climate change.

These were based on an ensemble of climate models in which emissions rise until mid-century, then start to taper off – an optimistic scenario for future carbon-dioxide emissions. Though emissions drop off, the ocean would continue warming through the end of the century and beyond.

Fewer hurricanes

Surprisingly, the model simulated fewer tropical storms as the ocean warmed, and fewer hurricanes. By the end of this century,

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Perhaps instead we ought to name all future hurricanes after liberal/socialist achievements:

Abortion
Borking
Crime
Dependency
Ebonics
Family Breakdown
Gay Marriage
Heroin
Illegal Immigration
Judicial Imperialism
Killing Fields
Luxury Tax
Moonbats
Nine-Eleven
Osama
Politicization
Queer Studies
Retreat
Surrender
Taxes
Urban Decay
Violence
Welfare
X-Rated Culture
Yippies
Z Visas