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Here's the key to the story; it matches what I heard in 2006 after the war. This government couldn't make up its mind to take decisive action; it fits. When the Lebanon War began, Olmert, Peretz, and Dan Halutz, the IDF Chief of Staff, promised results to the White House using the old saw of Victory through Airpower. Everyone, from Cheney to Rice on down questioned the Israeli methods.

The White House was right. Leaking from the Israeli Government tried to put the onus on Rice and the Administration for Israel's failure, when in fact, she held Olmert's hand for three weeks in July. Useful Idiots like John Bolton merely amplified the Israeli Government line. Now, the accumulation of disastrous decisions by the Olmert regime are forcing the truth to come out.

The critical flaw in our strategic planning since 2006 has been a weak Israeli Government, as outlined in the Winograd Report. It has gotten so bad that the IDF's deterrent value will not be restored without anything other than radical action, up to and including a campaign in Syria to remove the Iranians. Sadly, Hezboallah's rocket forces are so massive that a rocket barrage will almost certainly provoke an assault on Iran.

As to the fact that it's from DEBKA? Look, I've read more critics of Rice and Hadley take Debka and World Tribune reports as Gospel when it puts the USG in a more "appeasement-oriented" light on this forum. Now that it goes the other way, they question the source. Can't have it both ways, folks.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

An Israeli strike on Hezbollah would’ve saved the day? All it did last time was unite the idiot Lebanese behind Hezbollah.

The real story here is that the Saudis—apparently with our blessings—shipped arms and unspecified “equipment” to the Druze, who successfully fought off Hezbollah, even though Nasrallah’s boys used heavy artillery. Nobody seems to care about that very significant victory.

Just like in 2006, the media reports of Hezbollah’s total victory are widely exaggerated. For some reason the narrative is that everything Iranian is coming up roses.

Well, the disorganized, hysterical Iraqi army shambled into Basra and cleaned house in a month, and it’s well on its way to defeating al Sadr in Sadr City.

The spin is that the Iranians now want their proxies in Iraq destroyed, because the Persians are such geniuses that we mere mortals can’t figure out their long-range plans. Maliki must be an agent of Iran, and the proof is that he’s defeating Iran’s proxies.

Huh?

Occam’s Razor says the more likely story is that the Iranians overextended and got cocky, and we all know that pride goeth before a fall.

Two things I know for sure: There’s a lot more going on behind the scenes, and the U.S. and Israel are in nowhere near as much trouble as the media would have you believe.

What you say seems true but Israel should have known that victory through air power is not attainable. You use air supremacy to soften the ground and then send in the troops.

Trouble is they had only half heartedly committed to the war and sort of got dragged into it without preparation. Soldiers were ambushed and kidnapped and others followed in hot pursuit. Thus, they were already committed to a ground war before they could even develoop a strategy.

Worse still, they did not have the supply lines in place so they suffered horrible losses on the ground in the early days, and had to limit and even pull back and regroup - that is when the IAF stepped up.

But we all know the rest - Hezbullah trotted out pictures of dead children, and the political pressure built and built against Israel. Secretary Rice did try to convince Israel to step it up but this Olmert is truly an incompetent and his government is simply in place for the largess. Eventually she had to pull the plug on him... 3 weeks after it started. Presumably she gave Olmert an ultimatum for one last push to succeed, which it did not.

That heads did not roll inside Israel is absolutely amazing to me. Winograd had to be whitewashed, imho.

I wonder why the US does not try to topple the Israeli government given these blunders. Maybe we do - I mean, Bush’s speech clearly was an indictment against Olmert’s failings and this new corruption scandal did originate in the USA - but it is too little too late. If elections were held today Israel would probably elect the most rightist, nationalist government in its history. A bunch of fiscal conservatives, war hawks, territorial expansionists, religious zionists and Russians!

Then again, maybe that is exactly why we doesn’t push too hard to topple Olmert’s government. Maybe Olmert acts the way he does because he is protected in that regard. The US wants a malleable Israeli government, and a corrupt Olmert regime is much better than a government more stubborn and hawkish than Shamir’s.