Posted on 05/18/2008 6:46:30 AM PDT by Sub-Driver
If he is alive, he is in the worst prison possible......running, looking over his shoulder, never knowing who to trust.
Bin Laden is the poster child for Islamic Fundamentalists everywhere.....when they are confronted, they run like scared little schoolgirls.
We heard it here first. :)
There could be. Then again, there may not. It depends on the situation. I do recall that we've discussed this before, and I do recall you made some good points. However, even if you made a decent argument way back then for me to provisionally treat OBL as still alive - even if you had fully convinced me - I will point out that the continued passage of time with still no unequivocal proof that OBL lives does have to decrease my estimate of the likelihood that he's alive. At some point the clock is not on your side of the argument.
Which...are..?
I stand by what I said.
And how many video's did Zarqawi put out of himself (showing himself) in Iraq while the leader of AQ there? - Answer = Zero.
Zarqawi had not established 'releasing tapes' as his MO so the fact that he didn't is not noteworthy.
He needs to get with the progrm. All “strongly worded” letters must be delivered to the UN.
Reasonable minds can easily come to sound conclusions in both strategic as well as purely selfish terms why the releasing of tapes would not be prudent, necessary or effective.
Zarqawi had not established 'releasing tapes' as his MO so the fact that he didn't is not noteworthy.
Nor ever has UBL - The notion that UBL gave video messages to the media all the time (or even semi routinely) is false. Understand the first few tapes of UBL that were released to the public (after 9-11) were NOT released by AQ. They were "recovered" during OPs and released via the Pentagon.
When one either fully knows or as operated in the regions in which UBL has seek refuge....one clearly understands that time was on his side in the short run (and yes, in this particular region of the world....5-7 years would be considered the short-run).
Bottom line remains.....One of these days he will be "got". Same with Zawahiri. And the entire world will know within weeks (if not within 24 hours).
Best regards,
Another source.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5i8r-zVNCTaFlIWcXpkF6M3BVZfZA
Begging for Jihad?
I suppose there are many things reasonable minds can do. I'm asking what reasons your reasonable mind has for doing so. My reasonable mind has come to the opposite conclusion, and I've given its reasons. Anyway.
The notion that UBL gave video messages to the media all the time (or even semi routinely) is false. Understand the first few tapes of UBL that were released to the public (after 9-11) were NOT released by AQ. They were "recovered" during OPs and released via the Pentagon.
Along these lines, it occurs to me that maybe he's been dead even longer than I thought.
one clearly understands that time was on his side in the short run (and yes, in this particular region of the world....5-7 years would be considered the short-run).
I was not talking about whether time is on our side or his side w/r to whether we capture him. I'm talking about whose side time is on w/r to the question "is he still alive?" To make this easy for you, suppose 92 years elapse and it is New Year's Eve, 2100, and the U.S. still has neither captured/killed OBL nor has there been any definitive news of his death/capture. At that point would the assumption that he is "still alive" make any sense? Of course not. Thus, time is not on the side of the "we must assume he's still alive" argument. Even if it's convincing now, it will not be convincing forever. Understand now?
Bottom line remains.....One of these days he will be "got".
Perhaps. Till then, I will continue to assume he's dead unless/until I see actual unequivocal evidence that he is not. (If I'm eventually 'proven wrong' by his capture/death, I can totally live with that. :-)
The brutal truth is that they chose to engage in Iraq and they got crushed. Now we're supposedly awaiting a scratchy, cobbled-together video to be smuggled down some goat trail to terrify the world. I do believe that's a collective yawn you're hearing.
...especially when he has like 57 children. It could be a son imitating him. The longer he is “on the loose,” the less I believe he is alive. He could very easily and securely find ways to prove he is alive.
Indeed. There could be a rotating crew of actors playing the role. Who knows.
The longer he is “on the loose,” the less I believe he is alive.
Which is perfectly, totally, 100% rational.
He could very easily and securely find ways to prove he is alive.
Exactly. And (despite what DevSix says) OBL has every motive in the world to prove himself alive. At the very least, the fact that if he's alive he makes no real effort to prove it, demands an explanation. And absent such an explanation, assuming he's still alive makes no sense. best,
I was making a somewhat light-hearted reference to Chevy Chase’s quips about General Francisco Franco, the Spanish dictator, from the old Saturday Night Live.
As for OBL, I concur with a recent article from The Counterterrorism Blog
“Bin Laden Has A New Tape Out And He ... Zzzzzzz”
by James Gordon Meek.
As for the search, I’ve been in Afghanistan for over two years, and have a vague idea of what’s going on in the NWFP tribal areas.
And I can only suggest to you (OSINT) that those who need to know such information.....Have it......but others who know how to follow OSINT and can read between the lines....can be quite certain as well......
And I've already given what my reasonable mind knows regarding reasons for why or why not on this forum. To the point of being partially reprimanded. Having operated throughout this region of the world three times since late 01......Those that don't know this region of the world....have no clue as to why UBL hasn't been caught....nor to why the assurance of a public proof of life hasn't been provided (though there are a number of very simple reasons as to why for that).
Well unless/until 'they' share it or publicize it, my conclusion remains the reasonable one. I'm going on the evidence available to me (as opposed to evidence I don't have but someone else swears to me secretly exists), as reasonable people tend to do.
You're right that if there's a bunch of secret evidence I'm not privy to going in the other direction, then my reasonable conclusion could in fact be wrong. Again, I'd be happy to be "proven wrong". I DON'T CARE if I'm "wrong" on this; I don't have money riding on the issue. I'm just drawing the most reasonable inference possible.
Similarly, I conclude there have been no visiting space-aliens, but I guess you could fairly point out that there's always the possibility that "those who need to know such information.....Have it......" However, that doesn't really change anything for me. Ok? Unless you're going to actually share it with me/us I don't see the point of you continually going around telling everyone there's a bunch of secret stuff you know about that disproves the (eminently reasonable) conclusions they have drawn.
nor to why the assurance of a public proof of life hasn't been provided (though there are a number of very simple reasons as to why for that).
If so you haven't said them (not in this thread nor in our earlier discussions way back when). I have raised a very reasonable question (if OBL is alive, why has he not proved it unequivocally by one of the numerous conceivable methods), and you haven't answered it; all you've done is to state 'there's an answer'. So, that's where we are. Best,
The Osama endorsement is coming soon to the Obama website.
Well, I think you should have a clear answer then in that reasonable mind of yours.......by this statement above. Understand the public doesn't have access to even 10% of the information regarding UBL, Zawahiri or the other top 100 AQ members we are currently after....
Repeatedly telling people 'there's something secret you don't know' is not a good way to provide them with clear answers. It does not illuminate anything. Even if you're right (which of course I'd have no way of knowing)
Understand the public doesn't have access to even 10% of the information regarding UBL, Zawahiri or the other top 100 AQ members we are currently after....
Understood. Doesn't matter. Doesn't change my conclusion, which is that on the basis of the best available evidence at hand, I think OBL is dead, more likely than not, and on the best available evidence at hand, no layperson has any good reason to think otherwise.
Obviously this does not apply to people who know all the super-secret stuff, such as yourself. But until/unless you, or someone else, chooses to share that super-secret stuff, I don't care, nor should I. I think the guy no longer draws breath and have still been given no reason to think otherwise by you, let alone anyone else.
If you really wanted to convince me otherwise (it's not clear that you do but then again if you don't, it's not clear why you show up in these threads to say these things), you would use actual arguments and evidence. This is a discussion board. That is what is supposed to take place. I am weary of this 'you just don't know the right secrets' game, and no longer very interested. Till next time then. best,
Bud do a search - (even of yourself on this forum) - About a year ago I gave a thorough analysis of reasons why UBL is still alive (all of it OSINT). I even believe you were part of this discussion - I don’t have the time nor the energy to do that again. It is all here in past threads. Do a search.
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