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Mexico's Oiling Days Are Numbered
IBD ^ | May 16, 2008

Posted on 05/16/2008 6:41:32 PM PDT by Kaslin

Energy: Even without a terror attack on its oil facilities, Mexico's output is falling sharply and could end as soon as 10 years. Its president is setting an example by fighting a difficult Congress and culture to reverse that.


If we Americans think persuading our Congress to get serious about drilling for oil is tough, consider what the president of Mexico is going through.

Put simply, Mexico's state oil company, Pemex, is running out of oil. Its output has plunged 20% in the last three years, an unsustainable drop that could lead to a collapse of the country's oil industry in a decade, according to Mexico's oil minister.

Exports could halt in as little as five years. This would be a fiscal disaster, given Mexico's reliance on oil earnings for 40% of its budget.

Nationalized since 1938, Pemex has muddled through for years on the nation's easily recoverable oil. But that's now running out. And without massive new investment to boost output, Mexico's oil experts warn, Mexican citizens will have to pay much-higher taxes or shut down nearly half of the federal government.

That's why President Felipe Calderon is taking the lead on a farsighted third option: using his political capital to reform the nation's oil sector and boost output — as America should be doing.

Mexico has other offshore fields that can replace its giant Cantarell field, but they're too far out and too deep in the Gulf of Mexico for Pemex to extract. It makes sense to invite in foreign partners from the private sector who can provide the technology. But under the 1938 oil nationalization, foreign investment isn't allowed.

(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: energy
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To: Kaslin
Mexico has other offshore fields that can replace its giant Cantarell field, but they're too far out and too deep in the Gulf of Mexico for Pemex to extract. It makes sense to invite in foreign partners from the private sector who can provide the technology. But under the 1938 oil nationalization, foreign investment isn't allowed.

Failed states are always defined by economic insanity.

21 posted on 05/16/2008 7:10:45 PM PDT by denydenydeny (Expel the priest and you don't inaugurate the age of reason, you get the witch doctor--Paul Johnson)
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To: Kaslin
You have to read the editorial. It seems he has the same problem as the House has with Pelosi

I don't think it's the same problem, but it's having the same effect (= inadequate/reduced supply).

Pelosi's Democrats have been waging war against the Oil Industry (and to a lesser extent, capitalism and growth in general) for many years. Thus they forbid new drilling (forget "exploration", sources are very well defined), as well as increasing refining capacity. It goes without saying that nuclear power is still off limit (again, as per the Democrats).

In Mexico's case, their simply against foreign investment required to exploit new oil fields.

I will say this, however; I wonder if the reflectance of the West inn general to exploit known reserves has something to do with fear. Far of "running out" before the next technological solution comes around. Thus our governments are content to let people suffer with rising prices, as long as "the other guy" gets pumped dry before us. Kind of like a paranoid version of "musical chairs". Just speculating here.

22 posted on 05/16/2008 7:16:42 PM PDT by Mad_Tom_Rackham ("The land of the Free...Because of the Brave")
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To: Kaslin
You have to read the editorial. It seems he has the same problem as the House has with Pelosi

I don't think it's the same problem, but it's having the same effect (= inadequate/reduced supply).

Pelosi's Democrats have been waging war against the Oil Industry (and to a lesser extent, capitalism and growth in general) for many years. Thus they forbid new drilling (forget "exploration", sources are very well defined), as well as increasing refining capacity. It goes without saying that nuclear power is still off limit (again, as per the Democrats).

In Mexico's case, they're simply against foreign investment required to exploit new oil fields.

I will say this, however; I wonder if the reluctance of the West inn general to exploit known reserves has something to do with fear. Far of "running out" before the next technological solution comes around. Thus our governments are content to let people suffer with rising prices, as long as "the other guy" gets pumped dry before us. Kind of like a paranoid version of "musical chairs". Just speculating here.

23 posted on 05/16/2008 7:18:00 PM PDT by Mad_Tom_Rackham ("The land of the Free...Because of the Brave")
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To: marktwain
The Republicans have not been in power for nearly two years.

Yeah, they held nearly all power in D.C. for almost 7 years, got beat like a drum at the end of 06, and then turn around and run someone like McCain for POTUS. Great leadership.

24 posted on 05/16/2008 7:25:13 PM PDT by dragnet2
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To: Kaslin

I see a possible solution here. Since the Democrats won’t allow US oil companies to drill for oil here, then the President should encourage Mexican oil companies to drill “right next to here”.

That is, oilfields overlap the territories of both countries, especially in the Gulf. We could probably convince Pemex to go into a deal with a US oil company to drill oil in the Mexican part of the Gulf, which the two companies would split.

The Democrats would curse and swear and spit, but there would be nothing they could do to stop the Mexicans from drilling just over the border. And if it was done in a partnership, not all of the oil would go through Mexico, even though they would get a healthy share.


25 posted on 05/16/2008 7:26:42 PM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy
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To: Mad_Tom_Rackham

“I will say this, however; I wonder if the reflectance of the West inn general to exploit known reserves has something to do with fear. Far of “running out” before the next technological solution comes around. Thus our governments are content to let people suffer with rising prices, as long as “the other guy” gets pumped dry before us. Kind of like a paranoid version of “musical chairs”. Just speculating here.”


I have made the same speculation, but I read of more and more stupidity on the part of politicians every day. I suspect that they are simply so absorbed with short term power that they really do not think long term.


26 posted on 05/16/2008 7:40:11 PM PDT by marktwain
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To: dusttoyou
The actual situation is worse than indicated in the article. From reports I've read Pemex has mismanaged Cantarell to the point of ruination. As much as a third - and maybe more - of the recoverable oil has been lost. A commercial oil company would never treat Cantarell the way Pemex has treated that field.
27 posted on 05/16/2008 8:12:32 PM PDT by quadrant
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To: Mad_Tom_Rackham

I too have thought of that possibility Mad Tom, but I have come to the conclusion that the Democrats, The Leftists with their notorious track record of unintended consequences in virtually everything they approach is because they haven’t the ability to see beyond their beaks. I cannot imagine these shortsighted albeit cunning sorts having the ability to think of the future in that light relative to their belief in the Satanic fluids from the bowels of the Earth that we depend upon for our energy.


28 posted on 05/16/2008 8:13:57 PM PDT by rockinqsranch (Dems, Libs, Socialists...call 'em what you will...They ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.)
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To: dcwusmc
To be sure. But I can TEMPORARILY bask in the reflected glow of their incompetence and stupidity, can’t I?

Not without looking foolish.

29 posted on 05/16/2008 8:14:39 PM PDT by Diverdogz
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To: montag813

“What will they do, send another 20 million north?”

If they have an economic collapse and another revolution, probably 120 million.

We’re gonna need a bigger moat.


30 posted on 05/16/2008 8:37:25 PM PDT by PLMerite ("Unarmed, one can only flee from Evil. But Evil isn't overcome by fleeing from it." Jeff Cooper)
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To: montag813
What will they do, send another 20 million north?

Exactly. Each one will have a siphon hose and a big gas can. They will take the stolen gas back to Mexico and then they will sell it to us for $4 a gallon.

31 posted on 05/16/2008 8:56:05 PM PDT by Right Wing Assault ("..this administration is planning a 'Right Wing Assault' on values and ideals.." - John Kerry)
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To: Diverdogz

OK, if you’re sure...


32 posted on 05/16/2008 9:31:47 PM PDT by dcwusmc (We need to make government so small that it can be drowned in a bathtub.)
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To: Kaslin

What’s really killing Pemex production is that it is a criminal enterprise masquerading as a legitimate business. This is amazingly similar to the kleptocracy that claims to be a government in that hell-hole of a country.


33 posted on 05/16/2008 9:45:29 PM PDT by zeugma (Mark Steyn For Global Dictator!)
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To: PLMerite
We’re gonna need a bigger moat.

Machine guns would be more effective, but our government doesn't have the guts to use those on anyone but citizens. 

34 posted on 05/16/2008 9:49:53 PM PDT by zeugma (Mark Steyn For Global Dictator!)
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