Right away.
And, if we don’t, how long will it be before the rest of the World is pissed off at us for something else, real or imagined?
Right away.
And if we don’t, how long will it be before we are losing hundred of thousands or millions of Americans in combat deaths or in civilian deaths at home?
With the advent of post-19th Century technology, approximately every 10 to 20 years.
And if we do, as in post World War Two Western Europe, how long can we avoid that?
Well, you can never predict the future but, so far, it has been 63 years and counting: The longest period of continuous Peace in Europe since the Pax Romana.
And, before that, in regards to Western Europe, how long did it take the U.S. to be at war with a Western European nation after it gained independence?
Fifteen years.
As I said, studying History will do you good.
Why?
Because History has already “Been there and done that” in regards to all of these proposed scenarios.
You could spend a lifetime building your philosophical sand castles in your mind but the real question is, “How would your theoretical society survive in the international world of Realpolitik in the 21st Century?”.
Many hunter-gatherer societies throughout history formed small defense units that bothered nobody and minded there own business. They did just fine until History brought about the city-state with professional warriors whose job it was to eat such quaint little communities for breakfast.
City states did just fine, endlessly quarreling amongst themselves, as in ancient Greece or the Pre-Columbian Aztec Empire, until an Empire that was much better at waging war than they were, such as Rome or Spain, landed on their shores and ate them for breakfast.
If you can find a magical island that will hide you behind a force field from the rest of the Planet Earth, you may do just fine simply minding your own business. Otherwise, you really need to think of such practical matters such as, “How can the U.S. survive?”
The Greek historian Thucydides gave the following version of the ultimatum that the Athenian Empire gave to the island city-state of Melos demanding it’s unconditional surrender to the Athenian Empire even though Melos had taken the utmost care to offend no belligerent during the Peloponnesian War:
Melos, exactly followed the path you are advocating and told the Athenian ambassadors so: We don’t stick our nose in anybody’s business. We have been very nice to you Athenians and have given you absolutely no cause for you to be upset at us for any reason. Why are you now going to wage war upon us?
The Athenian ambassadors replied:
”We shall not trouble you with specious pretenses-either of how we have a right to our Empire because we overthrew the Persians or are now attacking you because of wrong you have done us – and make long speeches that would not be believed……In return, we hope that you, instead of thinking to influence us by saying that you have done us no wrong, will aim at what is feasible…….Since you know as well as we do that right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.
The independent, idealistic, island city-state of Melos rejected the Athenian Empire’s ultimatum. The Athenians then promptly wiped Melos off the face of the Earth and the Melians simply ceased to exist.
As I said, History has “Been there and Done that” several times and you do not need crystal balls to see the folly of some courses of action. As my namesake said over 2,100 years ago:
“I have recorded these events in the hope that the reader may profit from them, for there are two ways by which all men may reform themselves, either by learning from their own errors or from those of others; the former makes a more striking demonstration, the latter a less painful one." …… Polybius (200-118 B.C.), Universal History, Book I, Chapter 35
The “We have been nice to everybody” argument has already been tried. It was the death of Melos.
Right now, the Persian Gulf region contains 70% of the World’s known oil reserves, the Iraqi people are sick and tired of religious fanatics and are now on our side fighting them. Iran is still ruled by religious, suicide-martyr fanatics, wants control of that oil and is actively seeking to acquire nuclear weapons and the ICBM’s to lob them into the major metropolitan city near you.
Iran has said it wants to “wipe Israel off the map”, considers the U.S. a Greater Satan than Israel and its religious nutjob leaders believe that to die after they kill Americans by the thousands or millions guarantees them an Eternity in Paradise.
With that kind of power, Iran can have complete control over whether or not the U.S. goes into economic Depression and reversing that military status quo would require nuclear war with million of American casualties. Once the mullahs decide that Eternity in Paradise Day is here, they will have the power to incinerate tens of millions of Americans regardless of what we do or don’t do.
And your brilliant suggestion is The Darwin Award-winning Melos Defense: “But (whine) we minded our own business (whine) and we were (whine) nice to you! (whine … whine … whine)"
Didn’t work then. Won’t work now.
Nations are like pioneer families in the Old West before the Higher Power of the U.S. Marshals and the U.S. Army arrived. Whether or not they survive depends on what they do to protect themselves.
You propose walking around the pioneer settlement properties like a 20 year old beautiful widow being nice to everybody and minding her own business as the guarantee of Goodness and Safety.
The World ain't like that, Pollyanna.
On some properties, as a pioneer wanders around, he will see some families baking a pie for that nice girl.
In another property, a pioneer finds Crazy Jeb sharpening a butcher knife by his shed.
“How’s it going, Crazy Jeb”
“Just fine! I’m having sex tonight. I’m going to rape the Widow Jenkins then I’m going to murder her and bury her body. Next month, it will be your daughter’s turn ”
"That's not a nice thing to do, Crazy Jeb. The Widow Jenkins is nice to everybody and always minds her own business. My daughter's the same way."
"Piss off!"
"But, that's just not right! I, too, have always been nice to you!"
"Piss off, I said!"
< under breath mode > Damn! The Parson's advice isn't worth a bucket of warm spit! < /under breath> "Well, ain't that special! See you in a while, Crazy Jeb”.
The pioneer that puts survival at a greater importance that having his head in the clouds then goes home, grabs his shotgun and, if nobody else in the settlement wants to mess with Crazy Jeb, he walks into Crazy Jeb’s property and locks him up in a cage in Crazy Jeb's own cabin so he has complete control of him in Crazy Jeb's own property or, if that's not feasible, he just blow Crazy Jeb's brains out.
For Nations, like for Old West settlers: SURVIVAL COMES FIRST.
And no, it most certainly does NOT fall under "common defense" any more than "gay marriage" falls under "equal protection".
Whatever you say, Widow Jenkins.
I will write that down;
"Doing what it takes to avoid the future violent deaths of hundreds of thousands of millions of Americans does NOT constitute "providinbg for the common defense".
Got it.
You worry about smiling at everybody and the rest of us that keep you alive will worry about the Crazy Jebs of the World.