If it's Jindal, many of us will be inclined to both vote and work to elect John McCain, having some positive motivation concerning the future of the party.
Campaign consideration: Given present realities, which number do you think would be larger?: moderate votes lost by choosing a conservative VP, or conservatives lost by choosing a liberal/moderate?
We probably don't have the answer, but have to consider many moderates don't follow politics that closely and will only vote for the top of the ticket, that discontented moderates are likely to swing to the other candidate whereas conservatives are more likely to simply stay home. I also suspect that of those who call themselves "moderate" many are really liberals (witness the MSM deeming itself objective and centrist). So many variables in play.
I disagree that it's worth 4 or 8 years of Obama on speculation that the GOP will later move to the right, to reward those who didn't show up and vote. I think you're right about the VP choice though, it's a confidence builder, and has value in reaching out to the right wing of the party. I admit I approach the topic as one who won't vote for Obama any more than I'll stay home. No different than GWB's two runs. It could impact enthusiasm though.
“Which is precisely why the VP choice carries such import: how many of us will be motivated to go out and help the likes of VP Charlie Crist advance? Arguably it would be better to endure four years of darkness and await a new dawn in the GOP than to reward the party for shifting to the left.”
I agree.
A conservative VP gives hope that McCain will be a stepping stone to conservative future. A RINO VIP gives the fear that he’s sending the party over the RINO cliff. It colors the motivation for conservative voters.
“Campaign consideration: Given present realities, which number do you think would be larger?: moderate votes lost by choosing a conservative VP, or conservatives lost by choosing a liberal/moderate?”
Taking off the conservative hat for a second, ‘ticket-balance’ considerations *alone* are enough to tell you that you dont need a moderate VP. You need a conservative VP to balance the ticket.