Posted on 05/14/2008 8:41:40 AM PDT by CRBDeuce
and the #1 foreclosure metropolitan area is Detroit...has been for years, gratis the UAW.
Correct! ...also slow to recover will be Condominiums (but that has often been true in the tortured history of Condos)
Clearly 'good news' while Bush is still president is 'bad news', isn't that your feeling on the subject? (Like the little bluebird on your shoulder keeps whispering "search out the bad news for now...the good news can come next year".)
I certainly don’t...never ‘invested’ in RE other than the homestead....only ‘bought’ once every 20 years or so (both times for the ‘school situation’). The ‘market statistics’ would be interesting but (like polls) subject to political manipulation.
An interesting ‘statistical breakdown’ comes to mind (far out as it may be): Every foreclosure is an entirely unique situation (some would call it an individual situation, but the term ‘individual’ seems to have negative conotations today). That said, there may be a small (but building) group of similar (but unique) situations. (with the understanding that most banks do NOT want foreclosure, as their assets are loans not buildings, and would be glad to negotiate an alternative). Those who have a mind bent in the direction to ‘start a new life’ may simply be using foreclosure as an opportunistic pathway to divorce from the past (with the word divorce to be taken literally here). That is, divorce from wife, job, past! I won’t elaborate, but wonder what ‘market category’ that would be under?
Wishful thinking isn't a good investment strategy.
If foreclosure activity consistently increased between March and April for the last several years, and this year the activity decreased, then that is good news - regardless of who is president.
But what the data shows from March to April - foreclosure activity always decreases. So a less than 1% decline from March to April isn't news. It's not really useful information. Heck, in 2006 the foreclosure activity dropped almost by 10%. Did April 2006 like President Bush but April 2008 hates the president?
Agreed, let’s take Bush out of this for a sec...sorry to inject extraneous variables. For starters, the Census numbers ARE already seasonally adjusted. And as their press release states aberrations in the monthly data shouldn’t be trusted. However this type of ‘good news’ in combination with all the other ‘good news’ in the recent past up til March has come with a decline in invested equities values. This time the ‘good news’ along with some ‘bad news’ has come with an increase in equities values....I am happy about that, and as you imply may be simply currently injecting ‘wishful thinking’ or as I like to call it, a little summer rally optimism. Again I apologize if what I said offended, it was not meant to offend (my little bluebird told me to say that).
Then you’ll want to pick up the June issue of MONEY (Road Map to a Rich Life) Magazine. In it you’ll find a 19 page special “Your Real Estate Survival Guide”, most of which deals with real estate in Kalifornia. And 2 pages (p.96-7) on Buying and Selling. (those who still think “we’re doomed” are sure to love this RE Special as well).
For the rest of us, the value of the article is the table on pages 92/93, showing the 100 Biggest US Markets... tho’ their prediction of ‘when the worst will be over’ is a bit ‘pessimistic’ to say the least....ie, how do you predict when Detroit’s real estate prices will bottom when you can’t even predict the next union vote? (Money predicts 3Q09). For instance, Toll Brothers is already RAISING prices in Naples, FL. Of course, Naples didn’t make the MONEY list.
For those who don’t have access to the magazine,
http://www.money.com
may have some of the above.
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