The death toll will likely be much higher than the numbers we are currently seeing. In China a place of 100,000 people is considered a small village.
It's not a function of the size of China's population. China has only four times the US population, but American villages can have only a few hundred people. The fact is that China's form of government is top down, command-and-control, in comparison to the US's which is bottom-up. The reason a Chinese "village" can have 100,000 people is because China's top priority isn't government responsiveness - it's minimizing administrative costs. The US has a high-cost (low-efficiency), high-effectiveness government. China has a low-cost (high-efficiency), low-effectiveness government. But the low cost of China's government is only on the surface - the large-scale graft that accompanies it means that the indirect financial cost to China's people and economy is pretty high, even though the direct monetary cost is low.