As far as the democrats in these special election districts being conservative that may be true on social issues but don't count on it when it comes to economic issues. These “conservatives” just elected a democrat who just promised them free money in one form (welfare checks, agricultural subsidies, a job, etc.) or another.
Also don't forget that once these blue dog democrats get to DC they will vote as they are told to vote by the party power structure, which is to the left. The power structure will allow them to vote to the right on meaningless bills here and there. This way the congressman can go home and claim to constituents during reelection time to have voted against Kennedy or the little congressional black crybaby caucus 20% of the time. This “proves” they are independent and not a shill for the America haters.
Your analysis is right on target, but the voters cannot understand what you are saying.