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To: denydenydeny
Michael Medved pointed out on his show the other day that one tenth of American households paid $60 each for a copy of Grand Theft Auto IV in the last week.

How many of them paid money they earned working, and how many just added another $60 to the $20,000 in credit card debt they already have?

Microeconomic examples don't scale up to macroeconomic realities. Some bankers made lots of money during the Depression. But this isn't going to be like 1929 - the Fed will do whatever it has to prevent a stock market crash and bail out the big banks. Don't look for a Big Bang this time - it will be a bunch of little explosions like Bear Stearns and the forthcoming implosions of Fannie Mae and Citigroup, neither of which will be allowed to fail.

And what the Fed has to do to keep the banks solvent is to make sure they can recapitalize by inflating away the value of your dollars while the companies issue new stock and dilute the value of your 401k's mutual fund holdings. In ten years we'll be lucky if our retirement funds have half the purchasing power they do today, even though the dollar values will certainly be higher. During this process, preserving the illusion that "things aren't that bad" is the Fed's number one mission - and judging by the comments here they've been very successful so far.

As Warren Buffett pointed out recently, to match its modest 5.2% annual return from the years 1900 to 2000, the Dow will have to get to 2,000,000 by the end of this century. Eight years in the equity markets are pretty much standing still. The climb is getting steeper.

31 posted on 05/08/2008 9:18:57 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ("One man's 'magic' is another man's engineering. 'Supernatural' is a null word." -- Robert Heinlein)
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To: Mr. Jeeves

So 8 years in you’re going to say that 2m is impossible at the end of the century.

Heck, if you asked someone in 1932 or so, they’d probably think 10k by the end of the century was insane too.

We can’t predict this stuff. It’s nuts to even try.

I might be 5k, or 5m. Who knows after 92 years.


62 posted on 05/09/2008 5:27:08 AM PDT by MartinStyles
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