Posted on 05/07/2008 8:01:48 AM PDT by Aristotelian
But Barack Obama's support has narrowed dangerously--and he'll need to make critical changes to beat John McCain.
The Democratic primary is over. Hillary Clinton might still run in West Virginia and Kentucky, which she'll win handily, but by failing to win Indiana decisively and by losing North Carolina decisively, she lost the argument for her own candidacy. She can't surpass Barack Obama's delegate or popular vote count. The question is no longer who will be the Democratic nominee, but whether Obama can defeat Republican John McCain in November. And the answer to that is still unclear.
During the last two months, Obama has faltered as a candidate. He has seen his political base narrow rather than widen, and some of his strengths turn into weaknesses. Of course, he has had to deal with the scandal surrounding Reverend Jeremiah Wright, but even so, he needs to remedy certain flaws in his political approach if he wants to defeat McCain in the fall. Here is a brief list:
The Base: As the primaries have proceeded, he has become more dependent on strong, almost unanimous, support from African American and young voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at tnr.com ...
Now the fun begins as a FALSE HOPE candidate has to run towards the center...... w/ the Shrill One she could have made that believable but no wonder Hope a Dope Boy can do that..... McCain is already there.... Buh Bye ‘Buma!
It’s funny that you would bring up Daschle.
I suspect he is on Obama’s ‘short’ list for VP.
McCain's reserve MAY be the Hispanic vote. But what he MAY pick up in Hispanic votes he will likely lose in the hard conservative vote. I don't care, as long as its enough to beat the Effete Obama. JMO.
I’ll believe it when I see a wooden stake in it’s heart.
Pantsuits are also going the way of the dinosaur...none too soon.
McCain has no clue about the republican base.
He has only his pro-amnesty advisor and beltway insiders who have nothing but disgust for the Republican party as an institution.
Careful, the Tan Kennedy gives good speeches.
I hope you're right, but I'm afraid you're not. I think Obama will get a lot of votes from whites who think that if we elect a black president maybe we can finally put the race question behind us. Of course, we'll never put the question behind us because too many people are invested in continuing the antagonism, but I'm afraid many younger voters, in particular, won't understand that.
Plus, younger voters tend to believe that if we just elect someone "new" and "fresh" everything will be peachy. They haven't been around long enough to know that Obama is just another politician -- and an especially scary one at that. Much scarier than Hillary Clinton (and I never thought I'd say such a thing).
This is not to say that it is McCain's either. In the General Election there is a rule-of-thumb that the election is decided by the 'independent' 20%. GOP gets 40% and Dems get 40% from their 'home voters', so the race is on to get the ones in the middle muddle. MAYBE Obama can increase black turn-out based on him being in the race and his skin color, but (the BIG BUT) will that offset the loss of the 'racist' voters who would not vote for said skin color. This IS AN UNKNOWN factor as there has never been a lead candidate of either party under such a condition. Also there might be 'racist' non-black NEW voters who will vote for him to affirm their 'progressive' beliefs. However, his performance in the Democrat Party preliminaries, where the leftist dominate, has only given him about 50% of their support. While the Clinton name has been magic enough to account for a portion of her 50%, it still means that there is insufficient support for him in the General.
Right now Obama has these things going for him:
1) he will have a united Democrat Party hierarchy (including the unenthusiastic Clintons) behind him.
2) The Main-street Media (MSM) adores him.
3) He is probably the best speaker politician in a presidential campaign since JFK.
and 4) Running in a race where he can try to tie his opponent to a very unpopular president after an 8 year term.
His weaknesses are (IMHO):
1) Too much of a liberal elitist with some tainted associations that give lie to his claimed moderate views.
2) Lack of experience after only being on the National Stage for 2 years especially in foreign concerns.
3) Running against McCain who has a proven ability to attract 'independent' voters.
and 4) There are an UNKNOWN percentage of the voters who will NOT vote or vote against Obama for his skin color.
I take offense to their description.
I was wondering what would happen if the candidate in the presidential election would die? Does anyone know?
The black vote is not the prize, the hispanic vote is. Without a good fraction of the hispanic vote Obama cannot win. Perhaps he will pick Richardson for veep.
BTW, remember that the black vote turnout is determined by those that count it.
“So in other words, according to this article, Obama must now start to lie about who he is.”
Precisely.
Naw. Hillary just has fat thighs. We need a fat torso to do it properly.
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