Also I have seen how fast chip prices are falling and would submit that Moore's law still holds true. We have reached 32 gig hcsd chips.
Posted on 05/06/2008 11:04:35 AM PDT by Notary Sojac
Mid-February was a good time to be a Blu-ray backer. Media moguls who had championed the technology were busy floating on yachts in the Pacific, chomping cigars, and stroking white longhaired cats; the billion-dollar payday was at hand. But numbers out last week indicate that standalone Blu-ray player sales plummeted in the early part of this year, and enthusiasm for the hi-def format appears as lukewarm as the applause at an REO Speedwagon concert. Where did all the buyers go?
Last week, both ABI Research and The NPD Group delivered the news: the standalone Blu-ray player market did not suddenly rise up and walk after HD DVD quit the market. Instead, it remained in its bed and took a turn for the worse. NPD reports that player sales dropped by 40 percent from January to February 2008 and increased by only 2 percent the following month.
ABI argues that the Blu-ray player market won't improve to full health for more than a year, perhaps as long as 18 months. "BD player prices remain high, and supplies are limited," says ABI Research principal analyst Steve Wilson. "This is good for the market because most current players do not support all the functions that studios place on the discs. Lacking support for—or upgradability to—BD Live! or Bonus View (picture in picture), consumers cannot utilize all the available options. Manufacturers would rather sell more fully-featured models."
This is "good" only because the collective companies involved in supporting Blu-ray haven't been able to get their collective act together. In fact, the only real beneficiary of the current high-prices, underperforming standalone players has been Sony's games division, which produces the PlayStation 3, a solid (and future-proof) Blu-ray player in its own right.
In answer to the question posed above, it appears that buyers have gone in several directions simultaneously.
PS3. The reported declines in Blu-ray player sales aren't actually declines at all; they only apply to standalone players. Sony's PlayStation 3 has been moving serious units, and while standalone player shipments can be numbered in the thousands, Sony sold 257,000 PS3s in March 2008 alone. That represents a 98 percent growth rate in year-over-year sales. Given the high cost of standalone players and the fact that the price didn't fall after the HD DVD announcement, it's clear that most people are getting their Blu-ray fix from the PS3.
ABI believes that PS3s will account for a full 85 percent of all Blu-ray players in the wild by the end of 2008. Despite dire headlines regarding Blu-ray that are based on the recent ABI and NPD reports, it's clear that the format is actually growing the number of players in the field, and in significant ways.
Upconverting players. HD players from both contending formats have long had to face questions about whether the quality boost they offer is "good enough" to drive users to make a pricey upgrade away from a DVD player. While the PS3 represents a good value for money, standalone players typically don't. They still exist far above the $100 magic number for broad adoption of new consumer electronics devices, and upconverting DVD tech continues to look quite good. On my new 52" LCD TV, for instance, Battlestar Galactica upconverted over an HDMI connection looks simply spectacular. Sure, it would look better in HD, but good enough that I want to drop hundreds on a new player?
NPD notes that upconverting DVD player sales are up 5 percent in the first quarter of 2008 over 2007, while those that cannot upconvert dropped by 39 percent.
Download services. But not everyone sees the need for a disc-based player anymore. The 360 has a well-regarded content download service that delivers HD movies right to the console, for instance, and Microsoft has been talking up to the direct download model for content distribution now that its pony is out of the race.
Apple has its own iTunes infrastructure that can serve up video content to iPods, iPhones, Macs, PCs, and TVs, and it now offers 720p rentals for the Apple TV. Amazon and TiVo provide further video download and rental options, while Netflix has been adding to its ever-increasing stable of films that can be streamed online instead of ordered through the mail.
Given the array of such services available, it's not hard to see how even tech-savvy folks might hang on to a decent DVD player as backup but make use of newer streaming and download services to grab on-demand fare.
HD DVD is dead, and Blu-ray is arguably well positioned to take advantage of that fact. But the format has a long way to go before it supplants DVD as the physical media of choice for the living room. Remember, it took nearly a decade for sales of DVD players to overtake those of VCRs. It was only when DVD players began dropping down around $100 that they truly took off, and Blu-ray has a long way to go before it gets there.
Getting tired of the Blu-Ray/Betamax comparisons, especially because Betamax DID succeed, just not in the consumer market.
That's the key right there Bill. DVDs are tremendous on my plasma and any improvement would be marginal at the best. Improvement that is not worthy of another $$$$ investment for a Blue Ray player. Also consider the additional $$$ to rent and extremely limited numbers of Blue Ray disks available at your local video store.
Its going to be a long time before I step up to a Blue Ray player, probably by the time I finish copying all the regular DVDs available at my library.........
NPD reports that player sales dropped by 40 percent from January to February 2008 and increased by only 2 percent the following month... PS3. The reported declines in Blu-ray player sales aren't actually declines at all; they only apply to standalone players. Sony's PlayStation 3 has been moving serious units, and while standalone player shipments can be numbered in the thousands, Sony sold 257,000 PS3s in March 2008 alone. That represents a 98 percent growth rate in year-over-year sales. Given the high cost of standalone players and the fact that the price didn't fall after the HD DVD announcement, it's clear that most people are getting their Blu-ray fix from the PS3. ABI believes that PS3s will account for a full 85 percent of all Blu-ray players in the wild by the end of 2008... Upconverting players...
HDTV is 1080i, BD is 1080p. the "i" stands for interpolated- it "guesses" 1080 lines. BD is a true 1080.
No. The "i" stands for "interlaced". It means that each 1080 picture is made from two 540 pictures; the first picture contains the odd lines and the second the even. It's still a real 1080 picture, it's just made from a pair of separate 540 pictures that are laced together.
I'm not sure what exactly I was experiencing, but I wasn't as impressed as I thought I'd be. Maybe it was expectations not meeting reality, since those HD formats are really hyped right now.
As for my apartment, a couple of years ago I bought a Sony widescreen CRT that is capable of HD (up to 1080i). I have been incredibly satisfied running DVDs at 480p and from where I sit, it's plenty good. The color saturation is wonderful, I can view it clearly from many angles and the picture is superb.
I think it will be quite some time before I move to a flat panel. Maybe I'll wait until SED technology comes out.
No doubt the big-screen HD viewing experience is superior.
It’s just that when I’m focused on the image, aware of price & hype, I still find it less than what it should be.
This in contrast with, say, CDs which due to no compression are everything they claim to be.
My old man had one of those. I remember it well. The clock malfunctioned, but other than that, it still worked great up until the time he finally gave it away a few years ago.
Someone will probably correct me, since I really don't have the technological background, but my understanding is that this has something to do with the fact that movies and television are shot in differing frames per second, and adjusting the movie picture to be shown on your television can sometimes produce jiggle or blur. The newer 120 hz sets are supposed to eliminate this problem.
OK, but lets put the difference between HDTV and Blu-ray in a different perspective:
A BD disk contains up to 50 GB of information. A DVD contains less than 10 GB. This translates to 5x more resolution for a BD image.
Exactly. Compression artifacts leap out at me where I'm expecting smooth subtleties, and the jitter on LCD panels is increasingly getting to me. Done right, HD is fantastic; corners cut, the flaws leap out.
There is NOTHING in that list that excites me to buy a blue ray. Even the John Adams series.
Iron man when it will get to regular cable, but not to actually buy for a collection.
The capacity issue is why I think spinning disks are doomed.
With 32 gig HCSD chips comming out, it is only a matter BRIEF time before seasons are released on chips.
or the ability to burn a single disk with 5x the worthless junk in a new format they want you to buy and redo your colleciton.
but DVD camcorders are already out before blueray camcorders even made it to the drawing market.
I had about 8 people over last night watching the Shining on Blu-Ray.
Everyone was blown away at how awesome it looked, and that’s almost a 30 year old movie.
OK, but lets put the difference between HDTV and Blu-ray in a different perspective:A BD disk contains up to 50 GB of information. A DVD contains less than 10 GB. This translates to 5x more resolution for a BD image.
Yes, but what does a DVD have to do with HDTV?
OK, but lets put the difference between HDTV and Blu-ray in a different perspective:A BD disk contains up to 50 GB of information. A DVD contains less than 10 GB. This translates to 5x more resolution for a BD image.
Yes, but what does a DVD have to do with HDTV?
Blu-Ray is still in its infancy. Bashing it for not having the same breadth and depth of DVD in terms of supporting devices is inane; DVD has a 10-year head start.
Also I have seen how fast chip prices are falling and would submit that Moore's law still holds true. We have reached 32 gig hcsd chips.
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