Posted on 04/24/2008 1:09:31 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
In the wake of Barack Obamas defeat in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, the Democrats have a huge problem. On the one hand, they have a front-runner who hasnt won a single one of the major primary states other than his own, whos a neophyte on the national scene, and who has enormous difficulties attracting the white, noncollege educated voters he needs to win. On the other, theres Hillary Clinton a candidate who has greatly diminished her stature on the campaign trail, who faces huge liabilities of her own (in part because of her gender and in part because of Clinton fatigue), and whose chances of winning in November would require her to thread an Electoral College needle. Furthermore, the long, bitter campaign has produced an untenable result: a large portion of each camps supporters now say they are unlikely to support the intra-party rival should their candidate not win the nomination.
Therefore, if the Democrats want to have their best chance to win an election in November that six months ago it looked like they couldnt lose, they may have only one option at this point: they can turn to Al Gore.
In truth, Gore would be a stronger candidate in November than the two front-runners. He knows what its like to run in a tough presidential campaign, which, as were finding out with Obama, is a huge advantage. He is, after all, a Nobel Prize winner; he has the advantage of now running from outside Washington even though hes as experienced as John McCain; and he might be able to pick off a Southern state or two. Hes already won once with an asterisk. And he could put the electoral focus back on the economy and the Republican record of the past eight years a record likely to continue as long as Clinton or Obama is the nominee.
Sure, Gores entry would obviously not be greeted with waves of enthusiasm by Obama supporters. Still, he is quite popular with one of the Illinois senators principal constituencies: the young.
Against all odds
Its true that drafting a new candidate at this point would be unprecedented. But the virtually deadlocked race between the two remaining candidates makes it at least possible.
Several things would have to occur and quickly. First, some senior Democrats with the help, perhaps, of a former presidential candidate, such as John Edwards would have to publicly urge Gore to make a run. It would help matters enormously if this group included former supporters of Clinton and Obama.
Second, though not required, a write-in campaign could be mounted in one of the remaining states, such as Kentucky or Oregon, on May 20, or Montana or South Dakota, on June 3. The advantage of Oregon is that, historically, at least one candidate Jerry Brown in 1976 ran a strong third there as a write-in.
The advantage of Kentucky, Montana, or South Dakota is that neither of the present front-runners looks particularly strong on paper in those contests. Furthermore, because those states are relatively small, a well-funded write-in campaign might have a chance to be successful. (Success in this case doesnt mean winning, just doing better than expected.) The key, of course, is to raise the necessary money to mount such a campaign. But in the Internet age with the right backing it might be pulled off.
Third, a bloc of superdelegates would have to declare for the putative candidate. Again, this isnt impossible. There are about 25 Edwards delegates still out there that might be persuaded by Edwards himself so thats a start. Plus, there are enough horrified and disgruntled party elders who would welcome an alternative, if they thought they wouldnt be making fools of themselves by going out on a limb for a candidate with no chance of being successful.
Finally, a Gore draft would eventually need the support of either Bill or Hillary. While the Clinton effort has begun to succeed in its argument that Obama has major weaknesses, it is time for its principals to realize that Hillary is never going to succeed in the camps second necessary argument: that she should be the alternative. Shes never going to catch Obama in the elected delegate count. And her initial high poll negatives (that have never been reduced) combined with the way she has alienated Obamas supporters make her now an almost certain loser in November.
So, if she and Bill care about the party and nation and truly believe that Obama is unelectable an unpopular but defensible argument they have, really, only two choices. They can throw in with an effort to draft their former protégé. (A Gore and Newark mayor Cory Booker ticket?) Or they can continue to indulge their illusions and send their party hurtling toward disaster.
ODDS REPUBLICANS JOHN MCCAIN The nominee
DEMOCRATS BARACK OBAMA Odds: 1-5 | past week: same HILLARY CLINTON Odds: 5-1 | same
DELEGATE COUNT BARACK OBAMA Pledged: 1479 Superdelegates: 234 Total: 1713 Short by: 311
HILLARY CLINTON Pledged: 1328 Superdelegates: 258 Total: 1586 Short by: 438
Delegates needed to win: 2024 SOURCE: REAL CLEAR POLITICS AS OF 4/23/08
On the Web The Presidential Tote Board Blog: http://www.thephoenix.com/toteboard
Really. If the rats steal the nomination from the Mullah Obama, I predict a popcorn shortage in America. (There might be one anyway.)
Please, please, please, please, please, please, please!!!!!
I feel like James Brown! “Haaaaayyyy... jump back... kiss myself”!
LLS
I liked a solution that a caller into the Rush Limbaugh show had. He said, we should just give them our candidate John McCain. He’s left on a lot of issues anyways, right? Then, the republican party can go into the smoke filled back rooms and pick a real conservative to run for our side!
Heads up.
LOL!
Over Hillary’s dead body. I can live with that!
Had he waited it out like Hillary did, he could be picking up all of these pieces.
We need a new category,”The degreed but uneducated”.
I’m a little tired here and over worked, but how’d I get into this thread?
Never mind!!!!
I’m still getting used to this new John Robinson Green VS Black latest ping thAAAng!
Carry on Rip....
>>>Gores made maybe $500 mill...
Eric Schmidt signed on for 3.5 million options of GOOG in 2001, and I guess he’d have signed Gore to his GOOG consulting gig for at least 100,000 options, making Gore worth $30 million in 2005 and up to $70 million last year.
It’s anyone’s guess though (in lieu of Gore’s employment agreement). It could be $15 to $35 million at 50,000 options, or $150 to $350 million if Gore got 500,000 options.
Do people actually believe that the bitterness and clinging in the donkey party will subside with Gore’s nomination? This year is the first time that a Black man or a woman of any color has a chance to be nominated for number one. There will be plenty of bitterness if Hillary or Obama is shoved aside for the Global Hot Air candidate. Both groups will think they were cheated. Plenty of bitter Dems who will stay home on voting day. Which is good.
:-)
LLS
>>>>I said months ago that Gore was somehow going to be the candidate, and I bet he will be. Whats worse, I bet hell win.
I’ve been saying it for about a year, to varying degrees of certainty. It’s always been because Hitlery is unelectable.
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