China is a prisoner to its history, one of the reasons it seems so enigmatic and improbable when viewed by outsiders.
Some of the bare bones highlights of Chinese history.
Before there was China, there was a handful of warring states, none of which could get the upper hand for long. The king of one such state asked his court philosopher, Sun Tzu, a contemporary to Confucius, to come up with a means by which he could conquer his enemies. Sun Tzu wrote his concise essay, “The Art of War”, which outlined military organization and operations.
Thus the king conquered his enemies and China was born. The emperor ordered the standardization of the written (not spoken) language, and a system of weights and measures. Otherwise he established what we would recognize today as a police state that did not survive him. The empire he created lived on, though.
For his part, the philosopher Confucius created the ultimate philosophy for the bureaucrats who would manage China in the future. Based on the idea that the universe was orderly, and should remain the same to keep that order.
Confucianism evolved as one of three philosophies of China, the other two based in Buddhism and Taoism. Each was associated respectively with the upper, middle and lower classes. And though western-style books were never very popular in China, education was standardized with several instructional pamphlets that taught the Chinese ‘way’ to everyone.
China developed the attitude that it was the civilized world and everything outside of it was barbaric, because for a long time, this was true. However, just because they were uncivilized, didn’t mean they weren’t a threat. Regularly, at about 200 year intervals, China would be invaded from the North (note: Tibet), and conquered at tremendous loss of life. This made the Chinese xenophobic and not like people from the North (note: Tibet and Mongolia) very much.
Ironically, once the barbarians had settled in, the incredible cultural inertia of China was such that they would give up their barbarian ways and do things the Chinese ‘way’.
For this and other reasons, the Chinese accept the idea of periodic disaster and destruction. This doesn’t mean they like it, just that it is accepted. In past, they have gone to amazing lengths, from building the great wall, to building the Three Gorges dam, to mitigate these problems.
The Chinese see their ‘way’ as their trump card against their enemies. They want the nations surrounding them to do things the Chinese ‘way’ as well. But other than that, they are usually indifferent to them.
Ironically, the United States also tries to export ‘The American Way’, and so when China meets the US, they both try to infiltrate the culture of the other.
China is still anguished over some of its bloodier conflicts. They are deeply afraid of western and non-traditional religions because of the Taiping Rebellion, perhaps the second bloodiest conflict in human history after World War II, which happened around the time of the US Civil War. This is why they still persecute both Christians and cults like Falun Gong.
The Chinese are also still traumatized by Mao’s Cultural Revolution. Many of their current leaders were persecuted and had family killed. When the Tiananmen square protests began, it scared them half to death, thinking it was the return of the Red Guard, come to destroy the rest of the country and kill them.
Today, ironically, China has become a confederacy of provinces. Their central government’s dictates are to some extent ignored in the provinces. Their military is equally divided, more and more ruled by near hereditary “princes” or warlords.
While there is a strong probability of a major economic catastrophe happening to China in the future, there are too many variables to guess what will happen then, save a good chance that it will be exceptionally violent.
All in all, a very thoughtful and perceptive post. Thanks!
(I do have to disagree, however, in that I think the odds for a peaceful economic transition in China are better than even -- especially if the country remains open for a continuing flow of capital investment by ethnic Chinese entrepreneurs from Taiwan, Hong Kong and the Nanyang.)
Good summary. I think that most of the product quality and safety scandals spring from the knowledge that another upheaval is coming (they have one every generation or so), and that the best way to survive an upheaval is to be well-connected and to have money. Standards and controls can be ignored in the effort to ensure one’s family’s survival in times of brutal and bloody upheaval.
That is a reason that I find it amusing that our MSM employees assure us that Beijing is going to toughen up manufacturing standards to keep harmful products off our shelves.
You’re saying that the real reason that the party bosses gunned down the Tiannenming square student protesters was that they thought they were like the Red Guard reborn and that, instead of democracy, they really wanted to unleash terror?
That’s quite an assertion.
I hear the Falun Gong-Taiping/Boxer Rebellion meme on a regular basis. I fail to see the parallels. Those who make the comparison don’t know their own damn history as well as they think. Falun Gong was carefully apolitical (and not even religious) until violent repression made it otherwise.
It's been my understanding that 'china' has always been a fairly loose association. Central government's primary role and concern being collection of taxes, keeping others out, and finding new sources for taxes.
Actually they are afraid of any religion with a mass following outside government control. Chinese mass peasant rebellions have been always associated with some religious cult. Waning dynasty beset by corruption and incompetence will always create huge discontent among peasants and some religious cult come along and channel their discontent into a rebellion.
It is not just outside non-traditional religion, but also their traditional one, Lotus cult(a kind of Maitreya Cult,) Falun Gong(offshoot of traditional religion.) Taiping was a new variant at the time, with Christian component incorporated into traditional belief system.
Bloody upheaval when a dynasty falls used to lead to demographic collapse. Up to 2/3 of population die. This is because life-or-death struggle to become the ultimate rule of whole Chinese. Creating One China is worth millions of lives. It is the traditionally accepted norm.
Much of deaths during this period is due to internal warfare, not because of invaders from North. Northern steppe nomads usually walks into already destroyed China. Except the invasion of Mongol and Jurchens, this is the case.
If Chinese do not insist on One China and learn to coexist as multiple Chinese states, it will be better for ordinary Chinese.
However, for the first time in more than 1500 years, their civilization is challenged from outside. They do not react to it well, and compensate their anxiety with huge megalomaniac territorial claim. They want to look big against other civilizations and nations in the world.
Their old attitude dies hard, and won't change unless they undergo another convulsion. This nagging civilizational crisis has been going on for more than a century and they are straining to take back the mantle of the lone supreme power of "known universe." It is not working out well and they are frustrated.
They are visibly impatient about not becoming the lone supreme power and such impatience would cloud their judgment and eventually cost them dearly.