Posted on 04/18/2008 9:21:10 AM PDT by obamahorror
The big areas of movement include NM which shifted from -6 for McCain against both Ds to +6 against Obama and +3 against Clinton. Also VA went from a tie in both races to a McCain lead of 16 against Clinton and 8 against Obama.
The KY difference is still astounding but it is showing up over time. Clinton makes the race a tie now (it used to be a 10 point McCain lead), but Obama as the nominee makes the race 63-29 for McCain similar to March's 64-28.
Finally, I don't know how SUSA can do this polling and not include PA, FL, and MI. Hopefully that will change over the summer.
All polls were released on 4/17 (3/20).
MA: Clinton 56 (55) McCain 41 (42)
Obama 48 (47) McCain 46 (47)
NM: Clinton 46 (51) McCain 49 (45)
Obama 44 (51) McCain 50 (45)
MO: (2/26) Clinton 47 (46) (51) McCain 46 (48) (44)
Obama 42 (39) (49) McCain 50 (53) (43)
NY: Clinton 55 (54) McCain 39 (41)
Obama 52 (52) McCain 43 (44)
OH: (2/26) Clinton 53 (50) (52) McCain 42 (44) (42)
Obama 45 (43) (47) McCain 47 (50) (44)
OR: Clinton 47 (50) McCain 46 (44)
Obama 51 (50) McCain 42 (41)
VA: Clinton 39 (47) McCain 55 (47)
Obama 44 (48) McCain 52 (47)
MN: Clinton 47 (49) McCain 46 (46)
Obama 49 (46) McCain 43 (47)
WI: Clinton 46 (46) McCain 46 (45)
Obama 49 (48) McCain 44 (44)
KS: Clinton 36 (36) McCain 57 (55)
Obama 37 (39) McCain 54 (51)
AL: Clinton 34 (38) McCain 60 (56)
Obama 32 (35) McCain 64 (62)
CA: Clinton 53 (56) McCain 40 (38)
Obama 50 (54) McCain 43 (40)
IA: Clinton 42 (44) McCain 48 (48)
Obama 49 (50) McCain 42 (44)
KY: (2/3) Clinton 46 (43) (43) McCain 48 (53) (53)
Obama 29 (28) (32) McCain 63 (64) (61)
WA: Clinton 48 (50) McCain 45 (45)
Obama 53 (52) McCain 40 (41)
Over the past few months, McCain has solidified traditionally GOP states. MO & VA have now been in solid R column after flirting with Barry & Hillary for a while.
Barry has been essentially tied with McCain in MA, which is a surprise. He also has major problem in OH/PA.
NM is now flipping back to R.
The only state Barry might have a meaningful advantage is Iowa.
Ok. I can read the polls, read the numbers, and get the point.
But what do these WORDS mean:
“SUSA Does a Poll Drop”
Is there a translator in the house?
Thanks.
The title is from Red State. SUSA stands for ‘Survey USA’...
It drops a bunch of polls.
The other thing that stands out is that OH is not going to vote for Obama. We might vote for Hillary, but apparently not Obama. That’s huge. The election is really about FL, MO, NM, NH, IA, and OH. Right now, looks like McCain would get an electoral victory.
Personally, I think we’re looking at a President McCain and I certainly intend to vote for him come November.
What I find very interesting is that Obama performs execrably in much of the South. He consistently has trailed in Kentucky (which Bill Clinton won twice) by about a 2:1 margin and of course he’s DOA in Alabama. Sure, he’s more competitive in Virginia but he’s still behind. Polls show that Hillary tends to be more conservative in the swingier southern states like Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida. But Obama is getting whacked in all these states.
One of the reasons Senator McCain has improved in New Mexico might have something to do with his strong standing in his home state of Arizona which neighbours NM. Polling show Mr. McCain thrashing both Obama and Clinton in Arizona and that could well splash over into Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.
I agree. I think McCain will likely keep NM & NV, which have a big share of hispanic voters. Latinos and Asians simply vote for a black race baiter, plain and simple. From my understanding, the cultural difference between these ethnic groups is huge. Hispanics and Asians value personal responsibility, personal fulfillment, they don’t give a damn about ‘electing the first black president’ which lots of white liberals are drooling about. They absolutely hate affirmative action. McCain is popular among hispanics.
If things continue to go south for the democratic party, don’t be surprised CA will become competitive if Barry is the nominee.
Never underestimate the value of a free meal/free ride... It trumps all else, IMO
Right, exactly my point: at this stage in the political “silly season” I’m not inclined to trust polls very much, particularly in presumed purple states like NM.
You're right on! While Osama Obama may look stronger in national polls, the electoral calculus tells quite a different story.
It looks to me like the rats are digging their own grave by rallying around Osama Obama. From what I'm seeing, Osama has virtually no chance of winning FL, OH, nor MO. So in order for Osama to have any shot, he'll have to run the table in the mildly red states of CO, IA, NM, and NV, while simultaneously allowing NO losses in the mildly blue states of NH, ME, MI, WI, and PA.
Shrillery, on the other hand, would be VERY competitive in OH, FL, and MO.
McCain is crushing Obama in Missouri, that does not bode well for Baraq and the dem party. What’s that old saying, “as Missouri goes so goes the nation.”
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