Posted on 04/15/2008 4:30:27 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter
A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated. Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.
NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.
The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.
Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.
If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.
Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.
The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.
The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."
Hey, if high school drop-out truck drivers can get married, so can geeky bookies. ;o)
Tin foil it is, these people need to look outside the box, eggheads don't even check each others work. (apparently)
Remember the Metric vs English system incident on the Mars probe?
How pathetic was that?
How in the h%!! can they know exactly where the thing will land when they don't know if it will even deflect off a satellite or not?
Could it be because the original group of German scientists after WWII are now gone?
I’m no expert, but I wonder if the path of the thing is what has most of the error built into it, but the position of it now and it’s speed are fairly well known. Meaning that they know WHEN it will hit - IF it hits. (If it hits, it will be between 9:30 - 10:30 am, coming from the east, and would hit the Atlantic Ocean (or I suppose Greenland, or the poles?). Just my 2 cents.
“However did they win...”
You bet.
Hmmm..This would mean that Washington D.C. would be destroyed.
So if a satellite was intentionally diverted.....
While it is plausible that a collision with an satellite could slightly alter the course of the asteroid, it doesn't make sense to me that a collision with a satellite in 2029 automatically equals a course change that leads to a collision with the earth in 2036. That seems a little bit like assuming if the cue ball hits the eight ball, the eigh ball will always in up in the left side pocket of a pool table. Isn't it also possible that such a collision would take it further from the earth on the next pass? Or possible that collision of a 200 billion ton asteroid with a satellite that weighed a few hundred pounds might not alter the course significantly at all?
Does anyone know if you are in greater danger from asteroids if you live on a mountain?
Rename NASA to NassA
You seem to be asking a question, where the analysis has already been provided. This was obviously based on the orbit of of earth, the angle of approach of the asteroid, and the orbits of the satellites etc. If it were not based on that, how else would it be known the asteroid in the above scenario, would strike the Atlantic Ocean? Give only the details provided, with NASA agreeing with the calculations, I would seen others have calculated this to very close tolerances.
But I thought that SG-1 killed Apophis!!
Those false gods just keep coming back!
You know, with these kind of miscalculations, I really wouldn’t want to be on any of the space shuttle flights...
Those darn decimal points.
Ok, 2036. That will make me 83. So, that gives me plenty of time to build my underground shelter for my grand children.
Lets put it this way. If an asteroid of say 2000 feet wide, struck this planet within 1000 miles away from your mountain cabin, you be almost vaporized immediately. And if you survived the initial blast and shock waves, conditions would deteriorate rapidly to the point where most living things would die.
Given a little more time and Bittygirl will be in the news like this. :-)
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