[BOBTHENAILER]

USGS is always conservative. Last time I checked, Prudhoe Bay recovery has been somewhere north of 3-4 times what the USGS initially forecasted, and its still going strong.

I suspect the same will happen here, but we have a long way to go before we'll really know.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

You are correct, we have only just begun to explore the region’s potential.

We were sent on one well in the Keene area, and it turned out so huge, that we will be there for years to come. There are also 40 new rigs coming into the basin this year. Drilling is not cheap here, but the potential will offset the higher drilling costs.

Refining capability is the next obstacle that will determine the drilling effort for the future.

[CPT Clay]

Bingo!

And FReeper Thackney believes that we will still believe that we will be producing oil form the North Slope for another 50 years.

Personally, my back of the envelop calulations state that ANWR will out produce Prudhoe bay.

[tatown]

“USGS is always conservative. Last time I checked, Prudhoe Bay recovery has been somewhere north of 3-4 times what the USGS initially forecasted, and its still going strong.”

You are exactly right. Furthermore, this report only estimates the recoverable oil using TODAYS technology. This number will do nothing but go UP over time. In just the past 13 years, the estimated recoverable oil in place has increased 25x.

Bottom line is that this is a huge field and will almost certainly yield a lot more oil than what yesterday's report estimated.