We need to start drilling, building refineries: making oil in our own backyard. Depending on our enemies (and our friends) for our life blood is stupid.
U.S. crude oil production peaked in 1970 and has declined gradually since then. In 1970, domestic production of crude oil (including lease condensate) averaged 9.64 MMbbl/d. In 2006, total U.S. domestic crude oil production, including Federal offshore, averaged 5.102 MMbbl/d. That is straight-line decline of 126,000 bbl/d annually over those 36 years.
The United States contains over 500,000 producing oil wells, the vast majority of which are considered "marginal" or "stripper" wells, generally producing only a few barrels per day of oil. According to EIA 2005 annual report (appendix B), the top 100 producing liquids fields comprised 56% of total 2006 "liquids" - crude oil and lease condensate combined - production. And the top 100 "liquids" fields by reserves, comprised 68% of total U.S. proven reserves. Just to maintain the current declining domestic crude production entails annually drilling 5,000 new domestic wells.
This chart shows the breakdown of petroleum products yielded from one barrel of crude.
In 2006 U.S. jet fuel useage amounted to 21 billion gallons. The crude oil fraction which kerosene jet fuel can be distilled amounts to about 12.3%; and so crude oil refinery input for kerosene jet fuel amounts to about 11.116 MbblOE/d.
Current U.S. refinery inputs total about 14.2 Mbbl/d (presently at 83% of operable capacity utilization). Of that amount, about 10.1 MMbbl/d is imported. Present U.S. production of kerosene aviation fuel amounts to about 1.4 Mbbl/d (or about 11.4 MbblOE/d).
Moreover, over the course of the past 6 periods, the four week moving average for imported kerosene jet fuel is about 159,000 bbl/d (or 1.29 MbblOE/d).
Furthermore, it should be noted that the figures cited are Mbbl of actual crude oil demand and does not address the total domestic demand of 22.5 MbblOE/d. While we may only import 10.1 Mbbl/d of actual crude, we actually import almost 14 MbblOE/d. The difference being all those other things that are found in a barrel of oil (as shown in the chart per the link above).
Current proven domestic oil reserves amount to about 21.757 BBL (a/o 05 Dec 31). At current production input levels, that would be sufficient for a little over four years.
According to the U.S. Dept. of Interior, there are approximately 10.4 BBL of technically recoverable oil available in ANWR. It is plausible this could amount to about 1.4 Mbbl/d of production.
On 6 Sep 06 Chevron, Devon Energy and Statoil (the Norwegian oil giant), were reported in the International Herald Tribune that they had found 3 to 15 BBL in several fields in the GOM.
While it is too early to know exactly how big the fields are, the oil companies expressed "hope" those fields might exceed those at Prudhoe Bay, off the northern coast of Alaska. If so, that would mean that discovery could increase U.S. "proven" reserves by 50%. What's that do but prolong the inevitable by how many years?
They said the reserves where 175 miles, or 282 kilometers, offshore and located at 30,000 feet, or 9,144 meters, below the gulf's surface, among formations of rock and salt hundreds of feet thick.
It would take more than a year of drilling to confirm the value of the find, and the depth of the water will make extraction extremely expensive - profitable only if oil prices remain at or above $40 a barrel, according to oil industry analysts. This is on par with oil shale extraction.
According to a survey conducted by the RAND, a surface retorting complex (mine, retorting plant, upgrading plant, supporting utilities, and spent shale reclamation) is unlikely to be profitable unless real crude oil prices are at least US$70 to US$95 per barrel. Once commercial plants are in operation and experience-based learning takes place, costs are expected to decline to US$35–US$48 per barrel after 12 years. After production of 1000 million barrels, costs are estimated to decline further to US$30 – US$40 per barrel.
Currently, Shell has plans to go operational with a shale processing plant by 2010. It is hoped that 1 Mbbl/d could be produced within 5 years (and production of 3 Mbbl/d within 10 years thereafter).
According to the U.S.G.S. in 1995, total conventional undiscovered fields in all 8 U.S. regions (as defined by the U.S.G.S) at $30/bbl amounts to 17.4 BBL. Furthermore, all 8 regions are speculated having an additional 1.1 BBL of "probable" or "possible" reserves at $30/bbl. What production rates one could expect from those regions are totally unknown.
But the bottom line is there's no way the U.S. can meet its crude oil requirements domestically (not long term that's for sure). I believe a best case scenario would be a doubling of present cruide oii production levels. Even then there'd still be 30% deficit of just crude oil input requirements (at present levels). If one wants to domestically account for the ENTIRE 22.5 MbbOE/d, there is absolutely NO WAY.
There are a number of suggestions that can be made as to ways that current domestic demand might be met domestically, and how new technologies may be developed to spring into the breach. A good response to that claim is that one can't have a baby in a month by making nine women pregnant. Technological innovation takes time, and the introduction of new answers must be validated through steps that are each of significant temporal length.
Dixie Lee Ray was asked about that very thing once and she pointed out that EVEN IF a miraculous silver bullet technology (the candidate at the time may have been cold fusion) had already been validated in a test tube in some laboratory, that it would take over 20 years before it would have any significant impact on US energy supply. The reason being initial experiments have to be validated, then designed for, and approved at a larger - bench scale, and run at that scale, and then the process must be repeated at a prototype scale with permits being obtained and construction approved, and funding found, and then again the proces smust be run for some time to ensure it works at that level. Then an initial pilot plant must be developed through the same process, and then the first full-scale plant. If each of those processes takes a finite number of years, you may understand how quickly she reached the 20-year time to significant impact.
The other issue that needs to be addressed, even if one could (and just suppose for argument's sake that it is indeed possible) what happens to the global price of crude should the U.S.A. wean itself from the crude oil teat so to speak? What becomes the financial calculus then for domestic crude suppliers?