Posted on 04/03/2008 2:37:13 PM PDT by neverdem
In reviewing the maps of the Democratic primary results, in Dave Leip's electoral atlas, I was struck by the narrow geographic base of Barack Obama's candidacy. In state after state, he has carried only a few counties—though, to be sure, in many cases counties with large populations. There are exceptions, particularly in the southern states with large numbers of black voters in both urban and rural counties. But overall, the geographic analysis has pointed up to me a divide between Democratic constituencies—a divide as stark as that between blacks and Latinos or the old and the young—which has not shown up in the exit polls. It's a division that helps to explain the quite different performances of Obama and Hillary Clinton in general election pairings against John McCain...
--snip--
Clinton's support from Jacksonians gives her, as I have argued, a chance to overtake Obama in the popular vote and an opportunity to argue to the superdelegates that she should be the Democratic nominee. They're a significant bloc of voters in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Kentucky (although I should note that this week's polls in Pennsylvania show her running behind my projections). The Democratic Party has seldom won a presidential election without their support: Jimmy Carter carried Jacksonian voters in 1976, and so did Bill Clinton in 1992 and, by a lesser margin, in 1996. If Al Gore had carried just West Virginia or Kentucky or Tennessee or Georgia or Arkansas—all states carried by Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992, all heavy with Jacksonians—he would have been elected president in 2000, and we wouldn't have spent 37 days arguing how to count the vote in Florida. This Democratic primary contest has become a bitter fight between blacks and Latinos, young and old, upscale and downscale—and academics and Jacksonians.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
You mean to college chicks?
Well, if Geographical Size Matterred, GOP would win by 80% every single time out.
There use to be a popular graphic on FR when W won his Presidency. Even though he lost Popular vote the first time around, Geographically, he won 80% of the territory. It was a beautiful graphic.
academics like Barry?....no surprise....once you get those cushy jobs with guaranteed employment and pension and medical retirement, you start focusing on how you can make the rest of the workforce support you with more taxes.....
I can understand the disenfranchised for Obama, the checks will continue to come and the entitlement programs will grow to cover everything your lazy a## does not want to work for.
I can understand the guilty white liberals who feel a black man in the whitehouse will show the world how understanding and diverse they really are.
I can understand the young because the are not earning enough money to have any effect on thier lives and they are frankly dumb as rocks.
I can understand the elderly because they are frightened every election year by thier friendly nieghborhood liberals when it comes to voting for a consevative.
BUT I cannot understand the middleclass black American family, and there are many,that will be in the same boat as the rest of us come Obama tax time! Are they comfortable with this?
I thought Obama appealed to Trotskyites and Hillary appealed to Stalinists.
So that's the new term for uneducated single moms?
Well, I take exception to this, I am OLD, not elderly, and most of the OLD people I know don't want to have anything to do with the A**hole that is Obama, and you mispelled their.
The title makes academics seem stupid.
But maybe Clinton will get "Mrs. Jacksonians."
Rachel Jackson had a "maligned older woman" issues.
Interesting, and good, article. Long too. I suggest that people actually read it.
Mandates Are Not the Answer - Barack Obama has it (mostly) right.
The Murky Politics of Mind-Body
From time to time, I’ll ping on noteworthy articles about politics, foreign and military affairs. FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.
>>There use to be a popular graphic on FR when W won his Presidency. Even though he lost Popular vote the first time around, Geographically, he won 80% of the territory. It was a beautiful graphic.
Here’s the map you’re looking for:
http://itoccurstome.com/images/2000electionbycounty.gif
Yes! Feels good to look at it!
And here might be the money quote...
...as someone who is an academic by experience (degrees from Harvard and Yale) and a Jacksonian by inheritance (my paternal grandmother, whose West Virginian great-grandfather voted Republican as late as 1944 because the Confederates had burned his family's barn), I think I have some understanding of both sides.
Because, certainly, there's nobody else writing for the MSM who has any "understanding of both sides".
Essentially, what Barone has discovered is that the Obama-Clinton map of 2008 looks almost exactly like the Gore-Bush map of 2000.
Obama's electorate is the distilled essence of liberalism -- academics, government workers, blacks and guilty affluent whites. I don't know whether Clinton can catch Obama or not. But, if he's the nominee, the Reagan Democrats will almost certainly be McCain Democrats...and the landslide follows.
Anyone who was actually paying attention to the "non-answer" rather than genuflecting at Obamessiaha's charisma saw that his answer was completely incoherent and showed no real thought.
Seriously, the punk ass dolt made sure to ensure his talking points about talking things over and gathering intelligence and trotting out the "Bush Lied" schtick ("false facts"-- how is that for an oxymoron?).
Great, so where is he going to hold his war cabinet meeting? By the time it convenes, the White House and Capitol are in ruins.
Tell me again about how "smart" Obama supporters are. It reminds me of the time I was offended in my high school days (27 years ago) when my grandmother called me an intellectual. She meant it as a compliment, but I was not amused because of how "intellectuals" identified by the MSM are all leftist twits.
MEMO to "Stinky," you only got a few minutes to make the call you dumb-ass. Sack up and borrow some balls from Hildebeast's lockbox.
Great to see that map again.
No, he means the marxists who stuck around college to avoid a corporate job in the real world.
Yeah, right....what has he said so far that academics could call intelligent? He has made schmoozing and soft rhetoric his campaign format. He has not uttered one single policy worthwhile of mention, unless you are a radical and want the military out of Iraq/Afganistan ASAP, regardless of the consequences.
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