Superdelegate Math

Real Clear Politics ^ | April 3rd, 2008 | Alan Abramowitz

[The_Republican]

Table 1. Current and Projected Delegate Support for Democratic Candidates

Hillary Clinton Barack Obama

Current Pledged Delegates 1247 1414

Current Superdelegates 246 200

Total Current Delegates 1493 1614

Projected Additional Pledged Delegates 303 289

Projected Total Delegates 1796 1903

Additional Superdelegates Needed to Win 229 122

How likely is it that Hillary Clinton would be able to win the support of 66 percent of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates? This would require a substantial improvement on the 55 percent support level that she currently enjoys among superdelegates who have made an endorsement. Moreover, the data in Table 2 shows that 53 percent of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates are from states that have supported or are expected to support Barack Obama while only 42 percent are from states that have supported or are expected to support Hillary Clinton.

Table 2. Classification of Superdelegates by Type of State

Support Clinton Support Obama Uncommitted

Clinton States 165 64 148

Obama States 81 136 185

Unknown 4 1 16

Sources: National Journal's The Hotline and RealClearPolitics.

[The_Republican]

It turns out that there is a fairly strong relationship between the preferences of superdelegates who have endorsed a candidate and the preferences of the voters in their states: 72 percent of superdelegates from Clinton states are supporting Clinton while 63 percent of superdelegates from Obama states are supporting Obama. Clinton is doing slightly better at winning superdelegates from her states than Obama is doing at winning superdelegates from his states. But this may be largely a result of the head start that she had in lining up support from superdelegates because of her early lead in the national polls and her longstanding ties to Democratic leaders. In recent weeks, Obama has been narrowing Clinton's lead among superdelegates, and most of his gains have occurred among superdelegates from states that he carried in the primaries and caucuses.

Even if she is able to maintain her previous rate of success in winning the support of superdelegates from Clinton and Obama states, Hillary Clinton would only be expected to garner the support of 53 percent of the remaining undeclared superdelegates, far short of the 66 percent she would need to overcome an Obama lead of 107 delegates. These results indicate that unless Hillary Clinton can dramatically reduce her current deficit in pledged delegates in the remaining primaries, her chances of gaining enough support among uncommitted superdelegates to win the nomination are minimal.

[Walkingfeather]

Obama should not fly Wellstone airways.

[untrained skeptic]

How likely is it that Hillary can pull off a win?

She's still a long shot in my book.

However, Obama is proving to be a weak candidate as well. He was weak before the Wright controversy broke, and he's even weaker now.

If Hillary were a strong candidate that her party thought had a good chance of winning, I'd think it would be much more likely that she could pull super delegates from Obama, and take 2/3 of those remaining.

There are two things keeping super delegates from throwing the nomination to Hillary.

1) She's a horribly weak candidate herself that is outright hated by a large percentage of the populace, and has a long history of corruption.

2) Because of Obama's race the Democrats are worried that they might not be able to take the black vote for granted if it appeared the nomination was stolen from him by the powers that be.

If the Democrats were running a candidate that wasn't horribly flawed, they'd win in a landslide.

However, the appear to have found not one, but two favored candidates that are both possibly even more flawed of candidates than McCain.

It just seems like America doesn't have many people who are willing to go into politics that aren't horribly flawed, or maybe the few that do just can't get anywhere because they are lonely islands of sanity in a sea of insanity that is American politics.

[The_Republican]

I complete agree with your untrianed analysis!! ;o)

[arthurus]

The main danger to the Clintons’ here is the attrition of the supes. The Justice Department is cutting into their number at a steady rate.

[El Gato]

However, Obama is proving to be a weak candidate as well. He was weak before the Wright controversy broke, and he's even weaker now.

She's a horribly weak candidate herself that is outright hated by a large percentage of the populace, and has a long history of corruption.

Unfortunately the same can easily be said of the Republican/RINO candidate as well. He's a weak candidate, and has long been involved in corruption.

But, we will hear much more of the RINO's corruption, and weaknesses (BAD Temper, OLD, cancer, etc, etc) than of whichever weak Dem finally gets the nod. Much more indeed.

[untrained skeptic]

But, we will hear much more of the RINO's corruption, and weaknesses (BAD Temper, OLD, cancer, etc, etc) than of whichever weak Dem finally gets the nod. Much more indeed.

Which is why what we really need is for the Dems to defeat themselves.

McCain's most electable qualities are that he's not Hillary and he's not Obama.

The problem is that he doesn't seem to run against them, he seems to think that he can run a positive campaign and brag about his own qualities and accomplishments. While the press seems to be enamored by him, most Republicans aren't.

He needs to attack his opponents on their weaknesses or he's going to lose.

[El Gato]

While the press seems to be enamored by him, most Republicans aren't.

That will end, in fact there have already been a few signs that he's no longer their "Golden Boy".

Politically he's not much different than George Bush, which of course is not saying much. But he's not nearly so likable.

What a FReeking mess this election is.