Posted on 04/02/2008 10:42:02 AM PDT by DJ Elliott
Three days after Muqtada al Sadr ordered the Mahdi Army to withdraw from the fighting in Baghdad and the Shia South, the fighting has dropped dramatically. The Iraqi government has denied that it has agreed to Sadr's terms, but has softened its rhetoric against Mahdi Army, instead shifting its focus on the "criminal elements" just as the US military has done over the past year. Meanwhile, the Iraqi security forces are continuing operations in Basrah.
The Iraqi military has continued to target Mahdi Army elements in Basrah and in Baghdad and southern Iraq, but the government is now referring to them as “criminal elements” and maintains anyone breaking the law will be targeted. “The guarantees for the Sadr Trend and for all Iraqis say that the Iraqi government has law and everyone should abide by the law,” said Dr. Ali al Dabbagh, the spokesman for the Iraqi government in a press briefing on March 31. The Iraqi government “ will not target a certain trend, but will target only the criminals. And this is what the Iraqi government is doing and what it’s committed to do.”
The Iraqi government has now essentially co-opted the same strategy of dealing with the Mahdi Army as the US military instituted in late 2006. The strategy works to divide the Mahdi Army into legitimate actors and criminal groups. This strategy allows for the government to target the illegal elements of the Mahdi Army in raids under the mantle of the law. US and Iraqi security forces have conducted numerous operations against the Special Groups using this method. This has caused schisms inside the Mahdi Army, with some elements breaking off to receive support from Iran and others defying Sadr’s orders to lay down their weapons.
(Excerpt) Read more at longwarjournal.org ...
Bill Roggio and the LWJ doing the finest work on this putting all the media outlets to absolute shame.
Can’t be, they surrendered to Sadr. /s
***The Iraqi government has denied that it has agreed to Sadr’s terms***
TAKE THAT MSM!!!
Decent read.... FR thread:
Getting the Score Right in Basra (Great read)
And from Flopping Aces:
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Bill Roggio updates us on the cease fire declared by Sadr. Interesting aspect of the cease fire is that Maliki “appears” to have not accepted it:
Glanced at USA today this morning. If they’re ashamed, they’re not showing it. They’re claiming Iraqi security made a pathetic showing in Basra, and our generals are sorely disappointed. It’s probably a lie, but it’s splashed all over the front page, and Roggio isn’t.
Ceasefires In Iraq Go Through Iran's Quds Force
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It should not go unnoticed that Iranian Quds Force commander Brigadier General Qassem Suleimani issued the cease-fire to the Mahdi Army.
The backdrop to Sadr’s dramatic statement was a secret trip Friday by Iraqi lawmakers to Qom, Iran’s holy city and headquarters for the Iranian clergy who run the country.There the Iraqi lawmakers held talks with Brig. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Qods (Jerusalem) brigades of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and signed an agreement with Sadr, which formed the basis of his statement Sunday, members of parliament said. Ali al Adeeb, a member of Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s Dawa party, and Hadi al Ameri, the head of the Badr Organization, the military wing of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, had two aims, lawmakers said: to ask Sadr to stand down his militia and to ask Iranian officials to stop supplying weapons to Shiite militants in Iraq.
If Muqtada al-Sadr held the power he is attributed in major media reports circulating pervasively, the ceasefire would not have required Iran’s Quds Force commander’s co-signature like a father on his son’s first car loan.
When US commanders discuss arms shipments from Iran to Iraqi groups they are often dismissed or even derided (along with their Commander in Chief) for trying to engineer a war with Iran. Perhaps Iraqi lawmakers actually asking Iran to stop the weapons shipments will resonate among those who roll their eyes at US commanders on the subject.
If you’re not familiar with him, perhaps readers would like to meet Brigadier General Qassem Suleimani. His Quds Force was believed to have “attempted to provide both explosives and upwards of $900,000 to [now dead former commander of al-Qaeda in Iraq] Abu Musab Zarqawi, with the intention of him carrying out attacks on U.S. and European embassies and commercial centers in five Gulf states.” _Al-Sharq al-Awsat _ reported in May 2004 that then-Iranian president Khatami pulled the plug on the operation when he learned of it for fear only of the violent American retaliation that would ensue.
Such Dangerous Liaisons between Iran and al-Qaeda for major operations are too widely dismissed by analysts because of the theological and political differences between Shi’a Iran and Sunni al-Qaeda. The true ‘dangerous liaisons’ are those between said analysts and this critically flawed logic of irreconcilable differences and pervasive dislike and distrust among terrorist groups and state sponsors who share a common enemy.
You may recall that Quds Force operators killed a US soldier in a kidnapping operation, after which they executed the four kidnapped US soldiers on the side of a road outside Karbala, Iraq.
We’ve cited Bill Roggio in our DailyBriefings regarding the recent conflict between the Iraqi government and the Mahdi Army. And it is worth noting that Bill reminds again Monday in also noting the important McClatchy report that “[t]he Iraqi military, for its part, is moving more forces to Basra. The Mahdi Army has taken significant casualties in Baghdad, Basra, and the greater South after seven days of fighting.”
However, Vali Nasr, the author of The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future, said in an interview that “Al-Sadr achieved what he wanted. He stood his ground, made his point and showed he has the real power in the south, not his rivals.” Muqtada al-Sadr’s Shi’a rivals in the south are the Badr Brigades of ISCI and Fadhila, which controls the governorship of al-Basra province and holds sway over much of the critical oil operations there.
That said, we interpret that if anyone “got what he wanted” among the bad actors, it was General Suleimani and Iran, not Sadr, whose usefulness to the Iranians no longer extends much farther than his father’s name. At the same time, it cannot be discounted that the Mahdi Army uprising from Baghdad all the way to Basra was combated by the Iraqi Army and security forces with limited assistance from Coalition forces - and not the other way around.
Thanks for the ping.
See #7.
Very few people who hear that one side had over 2,000 killed, wounded or captured in 4 days while the other side had less than 70 killed, wounded or captured would come to the conclusion that the side that had 2,000 casualties won. Iraqi troops didn’t control any of Basra before the operation but now even CNN admits they now control 75% with all parts accessible.
The MSM is totally embarrassed because 1 day before Sadr surrendered the MSM was claiming the militias were in such control that they wouldn’t ever leave the streets.
The surrender conditions were presented to the Iraqi Parliament on Sunday because the Mehdi Army was getting a severe thrashing. The conditions, however, were laughable and there is no evidence that they have been accepted by Maliki or Parliament. Instead, the ISF continues to kick their terrorist butts.
In Baghdad, the nightly pounding and thumping sounds coming from Sadr City have become a form of entertainment for us. Showtime begins each evening between 10:00 and 10:30 p.m. local time and it rocks and rolls until various aircraft appears in the skies. Then, for some reason, it gets all quiet again. ;-)
Iraq is winning.
Iran is losing.
The Basra Business - What we know and what we don't.
I am assuming it got posted...
Well at least you are getting a bit of entertainment. One can only wonder how long the partial brain active folks in Sadr City will realize the fat boy and his gang of thugs are their worst enemies.
As you are well aware, it is only a matter of time, assuming of course the Iraqi government supported by it’s military and security police, for the Mahdi Army to crumble. As more Shia in the various provinces receive more direct aid in the form of reconstruction and social services, the militias will no longer represent the hand that gives, but the hand that keeps them getting killed in battles they cannot win.
ping for the rest of the thread..../
see #7 regarding Sadr...
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