Hmmm... That's not a true statement. We weren't in recession until March - November of 2001. Thanks to President Bush we pulled out of recession very very quickly. Since 911 happened in the 3rd qtr this is enough of a miracle to saint the man.
It is true. The u.s. had entered a recession which started in the 4th quarter of 2000. It ended in the 4th quarter of 2001. A normal recession, as they usually last for 9 months. If we are in a recession, we will not have confirmation of it till the 4th quarter of this year.
Yet, as any economist knows, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth
And I take issue with Lott's assertion of a 2000 recession
The NBER “calls” recessions. They are not necessarily unbiased. They are people from mostly “fancy” Eastern schools.
In 2000-2001 according to the BEA:
http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls
there were 3 quarters during which real GDP fell. They were 2000:Q3, 2001:Q1 and 2001:Q3. Notice no two were consecutive. If based on this data one were to call a recession, it is a matter of opinion whether it began in 2000:Q3 or 2001:Q1. The quarterly growth rates from 2000:Q2 to 2002:Q2 consectutively were, 6.4, -0.5, 2.1, -0.5, 1.2, -1.4, 1.6, 2.7. To argue that the first quarter with negative growth was not in that recession is a bit strange, wouldn’t you say?
And Lott’s point is pretty well taken, as yet we have not had a quarter of negative growth during this election cycle. Maybe we will this quarter, maybe not. But there has been a lot of recession talk to not yet have a quarter of negative growth. And he compares that to the lack of recession talk during a quarter of negative growth headiing up to the 2000 election.
Thanks to President Bush we pulled out of recession very very quickly. Since 911 happened in the 3rd qtr this is enough of a miracle to saint the man.
I was under the impression that sainthood required three miracles. But I could be mistaken; I'm not Catholic.