Global Changes Skew Calculus Of Food Aid For N. Korea(high grain price to hit NK hard)

WP ^ | 03/15/08 | Blaine Harden

[TigerLikesRooster]

Global Changes Skew Calculus Of Food Aid For N. Korea

By Blaine Harden
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, March 15, 2008; A01

SEOUL -- A grim rite of spring in Northeast Asia is the calculation of how many North Koreans could starve before the fall harvest -- and what the neighbors are willing to do about it.

This year, though, the famine bailout season is more urgent, more complicated and more politically explosive than at any time since the mid-1990s, when millions starved behind North Korea's closed borders.

Severe crop failure in the North, surging global prices for food and tougher behavior by donors, particularly South Korea and China, are putting unaccustomed pressure on Kim Jong Il's dysfunctional communist state.

"For Kim Jong Il, this will be his most difficult year," predicts Park Syung-je, a scholar at the Asia Strategy Institute in Seoul, referring to the North's dictator. "North Korea does not have much choice for food."

The threat of a calamitous 1990s-style famine has fallen substantially because of the emergence of grass-roots private markets across North Korea and a U.N. system for nutrition monitoring. Still, large numbers of people stand to suffer severe hardship, although probably not death, joining the ranks of the millions of North Koreans who go hungry even when harvests are good and food aid arrives.

Roughly a third of children and mothers are malnourished, according to a recent U.N. study. The average 8-year-old in the North is seven inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than a South Korean child of the same age.

[TigerLikesRooster]

N. Korea started to fall behind S. Korea in earnest when the first oil crisis hit in 70's. S. Korea was able to ride it out by doing lots of construction projects in Mideast, but closed society of N. Korea could not do such a thing. Some years later, they did some construction project in Libya. However, they could not do it on a large scale as S. Korea did.

Now N. Korea is faced with high oil price, high grain price, and galloping inflation in China, where they purchase most of foreign products. The current situation is far worse than what N. Korea was in 70's. China is busy securing oil and grain reserve for itself, leaving little for N. Korea aid. The current economic crisis is hard for everybody. However, it will hit N. Korea hardest. Without steady stream of outside aid, N. Korea is a toast.

Now that all potential donors are pinched economically, they could not afford to give N. Korea as they used to. It will reduce to trickles. 2008 will be a real bad year for Kim Jong-il

[TigerLikesRooster]

Ping!

[Carry_Okie]

2008 will be a real bad year for Kim Jong-il

Bad is good.

[nw_arizona_granny]

Sad news, I do not like to think of the hunger these people face and most of it the fault of their leader.

[iThinkBig]

2008 may be a bad year for Kim no doubt although my belief is that it will be late 2009 when the Chinese stop food aid to Korea. The South’s economy is tanking and they will be no help. We have had it up to here with North Korea. Who will help them, the Russian’s? Fat chance.

The Chinese are discussing how to take possession of Kim’s nuke arsenal. This discussion began three months ago and was barely a blip in world news. China will face it’s own financial crisis late this year and 2009 will be real ugly for them.

I have said the 3rd world war using nukes will begin in North Korea for the last five years. If we are smart, we will arm the South with their own nuke arsenal of low kilaton yields and yank our troops out. Fleets of advanced predators and some B2’s will keep them busy if the North attacks the South but the bloodshed will be God awful on both sides.

[17th Miss Regt]

The average 8-year-old in the North is seven inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than a South Korean child of the same age.

And this is the average of the surviving NK 8-year-olds.

[Hoosiersailor]

Not so bad for Kim Jong-Il, bad year for the normal citizens.

[ozzymandus]

Bad news for Korean cannibals.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Remember, much (not all) of the increase in the price of food is due to the “political push” for ethanol worldwide BY the AGW extremists:

By pushing UP the demand for corn (ethanol source everywhere EXCEPT Brazil - where sugarcane, etc can be grown easily, but corn does poorly - the price of corn, wheat, and other foods goes up. Raising the price of oil and power, also a goal of the AGW-left, is a direct source of the price increase as well.

So again, the effect of AGW extremists is to kill people. In the name of the environment, of course.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

We’ve been in SK nearly 60 years. Will another 10 or 20 make any difference ?

[.cnI redruM]

I think that the Olympics in Beijing, and the sizable media presence in China will make the PLA more amenable to bailing out Kim's boats for now. The real problem year is 2010.

The grain prices will still be inflated, and by then, no one outside N. Korea will care.

[SevenofNine]

I really want see China go smackdown on Tibetians then have all the countries who offend not send their atlethics to the game this summer

Who want breathe that air it worst than SO CAL back in 1970s LOL!

[RightWhale]

Whatever degree of global economic collapse we are in will affect the weakest countries most.