Go here and look at the charts. You will see that domestic production is going down at a steady rate.
http://www.heritage.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/EneryCharts.cfm
The best we could hope for even if we leveled off consumption is that we keep the domestic from dropping as fast because all the time we are working to bring the new fields online the US production will continue to fall.
In the US and world wide proven reserves consumed have been outstripping new proven reserves since 1983.
In other words if we drill every well we know about it still would not keep up with consumption.
Speculation for ANWR, for instance, are all over the place, some extremely high. Given the geological history of the region, I would bet on the high.vaudine