[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 232 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 306 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 240.18 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[Slapshot68]

Shocking....my state (Maryland) is projected to vote for the Democrat.

[AmericaUnited]

Most of the people placing bets on Intrade are amateurs who bet according to “the current conventional wisdom”, so I give it two grains of salt.

[proudpapa]

It was even better for Bush-Quayle back in 1992 at this point.

A lot can happen between now and November.

Right now the dems are getting all the attention because it is really close. If Hillary is the nominee, a lot of blacks will feel like they (once again) got shafted by the democrat party.

If Obama wins, a lot of moderate democrats will vote for McCain.

Personally, I think Obama has the dem race locked up. And he has peaked way to early. By the time we get to November, people will be over him.

[devere]

Republican electoral prospects have been improving. Flip Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio ( all very plausible ) and you have an electoral majority for the GOP. The major hazard remains the economy, and who voters will blame for any serious downturn.

[Political Junkie Too]

If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 240.18 Electoral Votes.

Using the probabilities in the table above, the expected value of the GOP vote is 238 to Democrats 300.

Based on 20,000 simulations, the probability of Republicans getting at least 270 electoral college votes is 20.38%.

-PJ

[Brian S. Fitzgerald]

We’d better start getting used to stinky poo...of one kind or another.