Posted on 03/09/2008 11:11:38 AM PDT by kingattax
A prolonged race may inspire voter hoopla but could floor the party's chances once a nominee is finally selected.
What if the coronation that is the 2008 Democratic National Convention turns cutthroat?
Could a presidential primary race so energizing that it has brought record numbers of voters to the polls and will result in the nomination of a historic candidate end in disillusionment, anger and feelings of betrayal?
Top Democrats are beginning to resign themselves to the chance the party won't know who will win the presidential nomination until after delegates take the floor of the Pepsi Center in August.
That scenario frightens party leaders, who say a contested convention would hurt the party and its chance of beating Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona come Election Day. But with New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's victories Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) (Justin Sullivan / Getty Images) Tuesday, all talk of ending this race quickly is over.
Former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart, a Democratic strategist campaigning for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, said he is almost certain the battle won't end until the convention. There are only three ways a floor fight can be avoided, Hart said.
"One is a massive swing of voters one way or the other, which I think is improbable. Second, a massive swing of superdelegates, which I think is equally improbable. Or a resolution of Michigan and Florida, which is improbable," Hart said. "So if you throw out those possibilities, you see that it is coming to the floor."
Experts see great dangers in the development — but also ways to navigate through the tricky process that could help the party.
The benefits could be that the candidates are forced to continue mobilizing supporters in every state and commonwealth all the way to June 3, when the last contests are held. Such a race, however exhausting for the rivals, would give more people access to a meaningful process.
Such a cross-country trek would keep the news on the Democrats, the thinking goes, and McCain would want for attention.
Finally, the prolonged race continues to vet the candidates, preparing them for US Democratic presidential candidate Illinois Senator Barack Obama (Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images) Republican attacks by getting the negative stories out in the open early.
But therein begin the cons. Every attack becomes potential fodder for the Republicans. In addition, the candidates are raising huge sums of money that must be used on the primary races instead of focusing on the general election.
Dean wants race decided
Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean has said he wants to see the race decided before the convention so that the party can focus its attention on springboarding the nominee into the general election race. A floor fight could stymie that.
Especially if the floor fight is decided by party officials or the nearly 800 superdelegates who get to vote as they please.
Hart blames, in part, superdelegate influence on his failure to win the presidential nomination in 1984 when he ran against former Vice President Walter Mondale. He warns that if superdelegates play politics to the exclusion of the apparent will of the voters, they could hurt the party.
"I went out in the fall (to stump for Mondale)," Hart said. "My voters were like Obama's. I couldn't get them to move.
"It's not as if Obama's voters will vote for McCain," Hart said. "They would stay home — particularly if they think the system is rigged. So whatever happens here, it needs to be as transparent as possible."
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a former DNC chairman and a supporter of Clinton's, is more optimistic.
"I actually think it's good for the party," Rendell said. "This idea that our candidates are going to blow each other up, sure there will be some of that, but it will be mild compared to what the Republicans are going to do."
Another potential land mine is the situation created by Michigan and Florida, which broke DNC rules in moving up their primaries and were stripped of all their delegates.
The states are contemplating redoing their primaries, but if that issue has to be resolved at the Pepsi Center, where a committee must decide whether and how the delegates are seated and present the plan to the floor for a vote, experts say that process would almost certainly be highly politicized and possibly ugly.
Without Michigan and Florida, Clinton and Obama need 2,025 delegates to secure the nomination. With the barred states back in play, the candidates would need 2,209. Going into Wyoming's caucuses Saturday, Obama led Clinton 1,360 to 1,220 in pledged delegates, or those who are dedicated to a candidate based on votes they received at primaries and caucuses, according to The Associated Press.
Because the Democrats award delegates proportionally, experts say it is unlikely that Clinton can overtake that 140-delegate lead in the races remaining. But experts also say it is unlikely Obama can reach 2,025.
"Ultimately, the superdelegates will make the decision," said Robert Eisinger, a political scientist at Lewis & Clark College in Portland, Ore. "The question is: Will they do it in May? Will they do it in June? Will they do it at the convention?"
Obama, with his lead, has said the superdelegates should follow the will of the voters. Clinton, with more initial support among superdelegates, believes they should vote their conscience. The rules are clear: The superdelegates — Democratic Party officials and Democrats elected to either Congress or statewide offices — are free to support the candidate of their choice. So far, there is no consensus among the superdelegates.
Dem division seen before
The Democrats have seen divided conventions before, such as the one Hart experienced in 1984, but the nomination was settled with a single floor vote. The party hasn't had a so-called brokered convention, where a floor vote fails to bring clarity and party bosses have to intervene, since 1952.
Leah Daughtry, the chief executive for the Democratic National Convention Committee, said she thinks the party can settle its differences.
"I know that it's much more exciting and much more interesting to people to think that there's going to be blood on the floor and wailing and gnashing of teeth," Daughtry said. "People who speculate that way really underestimate the desire of the Democratic Party to take the country in a new direction."
Meanwhile, Daughtry's job is made more difficult by the possibility of a contest in the convention hall. Traditionally, the nominee helps plan the long list of speakers and other key features of the four-day event.
Come prime time, the speakers extol the virtues of their nominee. But how does that work when a nominee is still in the offing?
"It ends up being the DNCC's game," said David Passafaro, the president of Boston's host committee when that city hosted the Democrats in 2004. "So they're going to have to walk a fine line in how they arrange the convention to be fair to both parties."
And some big donors wait until a nominee has been decided to support a host city's efforts to raise the millions needed to stage the event. Add to that the drain on donors that the record-breaking fundraising of the campaigns is creating and there is another potential headache.
Mayor John Hickenlooper, who has been out raising money for the convention for more than a year, concedes that dynamic is making his job more difficult.
But Hickenlooper and others see some positives. The increased attention and increased coverage by the networks would keep Denver in the spotlight — a booster's dream.
With the promise of making history in nominating either an African-American or a woman coupled with the floor fight, the mayor said, "You couldn't have scripted anything better for Denver."
Jeff Greenfield, political director at CBS News, said the extended primary already is creating extra coverage, adding he "would have to believe" that a contested convention would get more airtime.
But if the race becomes divisive, such attention could backfire. The riots outside the convention hall in Chicago in 1968 were, in part, a reaction to the party's nominating Hubert Humphrey when he lacked popular support. That convention so angered Democrats that they changed the rules in 1972 to give states the clout their pledged delegates have given them until, it seems, now.
How things might look if party officials are forced to intervene is speculative, but the fear is that some kind of backroom deal, or the appearance of one, might settle the race and divide the party.
The Republicans witnessed the danger of a contested convention in 1976, when then-President Gerald Ford battled Ronald Reagan. The brutal race weakened the party, and Ford lost to Democrat Jimmy Carter.
"I don't totally dismiss the point that a competition like this focuses the attention on the Democratic race. That's true," said Colorado GOP chairman Dick Wadhams.
"But having said that, this race is getting very negative," he said. "The animosity between the two sides is starting to really show itself. Now you've got a situation where these superdelegates are probably going to determine the nominee, and one side or the other is going to feel robbed."
-PJ
I thought the superdelegates were not required to announce their personal choice until the actual vote at the convention. For instance, our own (D) congressman here in WV says he will not endorse either of the 2 in advance (although the senators and other congressmen have). Wouldn’t that give remaining uncommitted SuperDe’s even more clout?
The question then is, would the DNC allow a few hundred "average joes" into their elite super-delegate club? The concern about the super-delegates today is that they are mostly elected party officials of some sort, and could be influenced by what their constituents do. Not so the newly appointed super-delegates. Perhaps.
Are the states delegates already named? If the DNC decides to seat them as super-delegates to be won at the convention, would the states then have a new round of selecting super-delegates?
-PJ
What a joke. Yeah, the Republicans might tell the truth.
Gawd, im lovin wathin the clintons squirm in their slow, agonizing, political death.
Let’s hope it’s a repeat of the 1968 dem convention.
News that brings a big smile to may face.
There’s been little to none mention of the fact that Bill Clinton is one of those super delegates.
Might need more Coke served then Pepsi if you get my sniff drift.
FR bookmark , ..
Actually, the superdelegate decision can be made prior to the convention. They coulc have a “pre-convention” in May, and pledge support to Obama, and the race will be effectively over. That way they could prevent a floor fight.
Recreate 68, google it and they are up and running already. You know the libs, always looking for a good protest lol.
I think Limbaugh was a little late, actually. The black racists are going to take over the Democratic Party if not the country.
The Florida Democratic party has surmised that if the Florida delegates to the convention are not seated, then the state party would not support the Democratic nominee. Look for Michigan to do the same.
Both Florida and Michigan knew that the DNC would ban their delegations if they held the early primaries. They held the early primaries anyway. I think both states are sure that their delegates to the Democratic convention will be seated. It is the convention delegates who will decide if the Florida and Michigan delegates get seated. The DNC does not have the power to keep them from being seated. It appears that Obama sided with the DNC and Hillary sort of sided with the States.
Dean was elected to head the DNC because he promised to split the DNC money equally among the states rather than spend it the way the DNC wanted. He did so. But he is trying to tell the states what to do or else, and the state party leaders do not like that one bit. Those party leaders make up most of the super delegates.
The Convention Delegates will decide if Florida and Michigan are to be seated or not. That will be a clue as to how the super Delegates are going to vote on the nomination. If the delegates overrule Dean and the DNC, it will be a while before the next DNC head tries to tell states when and if they can hold a primary. I look for a majority of delegate to vote to seat Michigan and Florida.
Obama at this point is not going to go for new primaries in Florida and Michigan. Why? He knows Hillary would whip his rump in both states. But if he doesn't, then the current delegates from those two states will likely be seated at the convention.
Notice that about 3 weeks ago Hillary referred to John McCain as her good friend. Then last week Hillary said that only She and her friend John McCain were qualified to be president of the USA.
If only Hillary and McCain are qualified then how could Bill and Hillary support Obama if he gets the nomination. That looks for all the world like a direct threat to the Democratic party. Look for Hillary and Bill to support McCain if the Democrats nominate Obama. That would absolutely insure that Obama would go down at least 65 to 35 and Republicans would win the house and maybe even the senate. Is giving a black man the nomination worth the cost.. that is the question.
Hillary is in effect saying, Obama may be able to cost Democrats the support of black voters... but Bill and I can cause a huge number of registered Democrats to vote for a John McCain.
Bill and Hillary in effect have an AK-47 pointed at the Democratic parties head, and if they don't get the nomination they will pull the trigger.
As this goes on, it looks to me like McCain is a sure thing and Republicans just might take the house and even have a chance at the senate.
No matter who wins the Democratic primary, the Democratic party loses.
Yeah, Limbaugh Effect!
If all of this comes to past--and only time will tell--I hope all here who derided, chastised, impugned, denigrated, and basically challenged everything including our sanity for voting to Her Thigness--never mind the sh*t El Rushbo took for suggesting same, I can only hope these political experts extraordinaire, and sufferers from extreme Hillary Derangement Syndrome will have the good grace to fess up the error of their ways.
Me, I'm stocking up on popcorn, Heineken and good cigars, cuz it looks like its going to a fun time in the old town this summer.
Rush, you magnificent bastard!!
Bon Appetit! I love the smell of corrupt democrat burning in the AM.
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