Posted on 03/08/2008 3:59:54 AM PST by Man50D
The recent rise in oil prices to over $100 a barrell has been fueled largely by speculators, anaylsts say, hoping to hedge against the falling dollar and an unstable world situation - especially in the Middle East and South America.
But that might change in the next few weeks:
The stunning price rise has been driven almost exclusively by investors who were bailing out of the dollar and other financial assets and pouring into commodities, Judith Dwarkin, chief economist at Calgary-based Ross Smith Energy Group, said yesterday.
“The fundamentals don't support prices at $80, let alone $100,” Ms. Dwarkin said. She said global demand growth has slowed in recent years, while spare capacity among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has expanded somewhat, even as inventories of gasoline are at robust levels.
“The greater prices diverge from what is fundamentally supportable, and the longer they stay at a distance from what is fundamentally supportable, the greater the risk of a correction, and a large one.” She has forecast an average price of $75 a barrel for this year.
Oil consumption in the developed world is dropping more sharply than anticipated just a few months ago because the subprime crisis has contributed to increasing economic weakness, Mr. Lynch said. Even emerging economies have slowed their demand growth in the face of record high prices, he added. This speculative bubble, analysts say, may pop before summer due to increased gasoline stocks and a slowing economy.
At this point, any drop would be a welcome relief.
That is true, especially in light of an overheated, overinflated housing market. In most places the subprime boom was very inflationary and jakced up taxes and interest costs. I agree that when the music stopped they were stuck with a too-expensive house and payments and their equity stake was too little to motivate a lot of people to fight out of it. My point is that the govt. should stay out of it and let this situation play itself out. Intervention now extends the pain. There will be pain regardless. I am troubled by the number of people who don’t feel obliged to ‘work’ their way out of their credit problems.
This is exactly why the opec scum are decreasing production. We should have taken saudi arabia when we had the chance in ‘01.
That problem was resolved by the introduction of the automobile. Currently the major concern (other then terrorism which itself is directly related to oil) is the cost of energy. I think most of us on this forum can agree that the high cost of energy today is a direct result of laws and regulations put in place to "protect the environment".
In other words, it is not the lack of means that is causing this problem, but our own (via our elected representative's) action.
Some problems can be resolved by the introduction of new technology, others by more dramatic means.
If I was a betting man I would not bet too much on technology saving us (sinced the same forces that got us to this point are in position to deflect or control the introduction of new technology).
My guess is it will be a major event that shakes up this nation (if not the world) before this issue is resolved.
As was the case in WWI and WWII and a lesser degree the Great Depression of 1930s, the event will be a world wide affair.
The world maps changed after the two world wars, this event, what ever it is, will also cause more work for mapmakers.
I will not be around to see it, but I predict that "energy" will not be a problem for citizens of 2108. (Don't feel too bad, I can also gurantee you they will have their own concerns, ones we can not even begin to imagine.
Bottom line, hang on tightly because this is going to be a very bumpy ride.
Yep, that is a key difference, but one that cannot last much longer. However, similar to the Carter years, the Fed has painted itself into another corner. What happens when the next interest rate cut doesn't do the trick? Stagflation. I think it's unavoidable at this point. The market must be allowed to correct itself, and without all this intervention in the name of lowering inflation and attempts to avoid a deep recession. The Fed has screwed the pooch in a big way and Congress, with their "risky schemes" isn't helping one iota. Couple that will all the "doom and gloom" talk in the media and the average Joe who isn't paying much attention will hunker down, further deepening the mess we're in. There are a couple of bills floating in Congress at the moment that would extend credit card like banking regulations to the mortgage industry. If that happens, hello 30% mortgage interest rates.
The Fed is delaying the inevitable, while at the same time making the resulting impact far worse than it would have been if they'd have just let the market correct itself and weed out the deadbeats.....I, for one, am and have for a while, been preparing for the worst, but "hoping" for the best. My houses, my farm, all my airplanes, my cars, everything I own is paid for. I can feed myself and my family from my farm. I don't know what the city folk are going to do. There's a storm coming. It's not quite here yet, but it's coming......
There’s a tremendous amount of diesel fuel being transported to the active military theaters in both Afghanistan and Iraq, in support of the WOT. While that may be a small element of the overall price structure, it can’t be ignored.
Same thing is manifest in the market for plywood and some other construction materials...
No time. Small truckers are going under NOW, diesal rigs are being parked and will soon start getting repossessed, and we should start seeing truckers’ strikes this coming week.
We don’t actually need to get our energy supplies from the Islamic world, you know. We have all the supplies we need in this country to last us until oil and coal are obsolete.
Time to put some pressure on the feds to eliminate the laws that force us to kowtow to nations whose intentions are dubious.
all commodities are a bad investment.... except American foodstuff
At some point, somebody needs to tell the cretins in Flori-duh and Californicatia that the oil offshore of those places belongs to all of the American people and not just to them.
They are lowering the dollar for a few reasons:
Bring back a manufacturing base.
To hurt/punish China and Euroweania.
To shore-up American agricultural dominance.
To shake the world’s reliance on the USD.
Not much at all.
U.S. Weekly Finished Motor Gasoline Product Supplied
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wgfupus24.htm
Of course it’s about to pop. I just bought 100 shares of DBO and 50 shares of USG. It has to pop - now.
The states in general aren’t the major obstacle - it’s the feds who have locked away most of our energy supplies.
If you ever wonder why the world’s largest known deposits of coal - which sit under federally-controlled land in Utah - google the name “Moctar Riady”.
Bring back a manufacturing base.
A much, much easier way to accomplish this would be to put an end to the folly of "corporate" taxes. Corporations don't pay taxes, they collect taxes. Any tax "paid" by a corporation is simply passed along to the end user. End users always pay all taxes. Heaping a larger burden on the end user is not a way to get the economy moving, despite what the mindless DemocRats think. Another thing that should be done is eliminate the Capital Gains tax entirely. Taxing the movement of capital in a free market society is ludicrous. Look at what lowering the CG tax rate by 5% did to the economy. Next, enact meaningful tort reform so that corporations who build things don't have to worry about being sued into oblivion by ambulance chasing trail lawyers, supported by goobermint edukated bleeding heart juries. Do these things and you will bring manufacturing flooding back to America from all over the world, not just the companies that have left for greener pastures.
To hurt/punish China and Euroweania.
For what?
To shore-up American agricultural dominance.
We already feed about 65% of the planet. Why does this need shoring up? Price controls and artificial markets are what is hurting agriculture.
To shake the world’s reliance on the USD.
Why?
Preparation for more refinery turn-arounds and tie-ins of upgrades and expansions than has been done in a season for a long time.
Great posting. Thanks!
You’re correct, there will be a crash in the housing industry. I would say though that there won’t be a ‘mortgage crisis’ per se since there simply won’t be a mortgage industry. Mortgages will simply be unavailable.
“There will be pain regardless. I am troubled by the number of people who don’t feel obliged to ‘work’ their way out of their credit problems.”
There won’t be any ‘pain’ if we elect Obama since we will ‘all be working together to solve our problems’. IOW, you and I and all the other tax payers will be working to solve everyone else’s problems and to relieve their ‘pain’.
Yep, this is exactly what is going to happen if either of the bills currently floating in Congress get passed and signed by the POTUS.....
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