Posted on 03/06/2008 10:48:17 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
WASHINGTON -- Leading Democrats scrambled Wednesday to prevent the closest, most riveting presidential contest in decades from tearing the party apart, as the odds rose that neither Hillary Rodham Clinton nor Barack Obama could clinch the nomination without angering large blocs of voters.
Anxiety within the party swelled after Clinton's victories Tuesday staved off elimination and gave her fresh momentum, yet did little to eat into Obama's lead among delegates -- the people who will formally pick the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in August.
Clinton trails Obama by 105 delegates after netting about a dozen more than he did Tuesday, Associated Press totals show. To make up the gap, the Clinton campaign has pushed to seat delegates from Michigan and Florida -- two states sidelined for violating party rules. Obama did not campaign in either state, though an ad of his aired in Florida. He was not on the ballot in Michigan.
The Michigan Democratic Party said it was in negotiations with its counterpart in Florida, with the Clinton and Obama campaigns, and with the national party over the seating of delegates from the two states.
Democratic members of the Florida and Michigan congressional delegations met on Capitol Hill on Wednesday evening to discuss how to proceed, amid concerns that constituencies such as black voters could be alienated if a solution wasn't reached.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
The Democrats are headed to a brokered Convention unless one or the other candidates massively self destructs between then and now. Hillary need to get about 79% of the remaining delegates but Obama needs 69%! This is going to be a brokered Convention unless they redo FL-MI or the Super Delegates decide to line up solidly behind one of them.
Here is the math.
There are 4049 total Democrat Delegates - 338 not seated from MI and FL and you get 3731. Need 2025 to win the Democrat nomination. Which is dumb since they did not seat the 338 MI-FL delegates should only need 1856 to win.
Obama has 1520 - 2025 = 505 left to get for Obama to win.
Hillary has 1424 - 2025 = 601.
1520 (Obama)+ 1424 (Hillary) = 2944 Delegates awarded. 4049 - 338 FL and MI delegates delegates = 3711 winnable delegates. That leaves 767 delegates left to win.
Obama needs 505 or about 69% of them
Hillary needs 601 or 79% of them
Suppose they split the remaining delegates 60-40 in Hillary favor? She gets 460 and he gets 307. That means he ends up with 1812 while she ends up with 1884. Neither of them have enough to win the nomination at that point and the Democrat Party is going to have to figure out what to do about it.
The simplest thing would be subtract the FL-MI delegates from the total needed to win. Doing that Obama needs 43% of the remainder or 336 delegates and Hillary needs 57% or 438 more delegates.
However that means the Democrat leadership would have to be smart enough, and tough enough, to tell the FL and MI Democrats too bad, you don’t count. And it would require Hillary to be a gracious loser.
And now to make it complete meaningless.
All this assumes the Super delegates all follow the direction their local voters took and line up the same way. But they don’t have to. They can back whomever they want. So it is entirely possible for 1 Democrat candidate to win the majority of the primary votes left and still lose because the remaining supers line up being the other Democrat candidate.
This is a long way from being finished.
I can’t WAIT. Get out the popcorn.
Nightmare ticket is more like it. Any so-called conservative, Republican, libertarian or sane person who doesn't vote against this ticket is at the very least an idiot.
Let’s say I’m sitting in a classroom and the teacher clearly gives out the rules before handing the tests out. If you cheat, you get a ZERO. Now here are a couple of students who do cheat, get caught and the teacher gives them a zero. They now complain about wanting to take the test again...But, but, but everybody else was doing it they said. Pathetic, isn’t it! This is what the democratic party is considering doing for Florida and Michigan!
**********************EXCERPT INTRO****************************
For the bruised and bitter staff around Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Tuesday's death-defying victories in the Democratic presidential primaries in Ohio and Texas proved sweet indeed. They savored their wins yesterday, plotted their next steps and indulged in a moment of optimism. "She won't be stopped," one aide crowed.
And then Clinton's advisers turned to their other goal: denying Mark Penn credit.
Way to bring down your potential VP candidate.
Rush-you magnificent bastard
“The simplest thing would be subtract the FL-MI delegates from the total needed to win. Doing that Obama needs 43% of the remainder or 336 delegates and Hillary needs 57% or 438 more delegates.”
That’s a good point. Why are the FL and MI delegate totals still being included in the total needed to win if nobody is going to get them?
Well,...we have threads on FR reporting that Dean wants a do over ,..and that the Democrats can’t afford to pay for it...
One thing about the Clintons: they seem to have a natural talent for creating swirling vortexes of chaos, sucking in anyone and anything in their vicinity. Keep your eyes on Denver this August. http://www.denverconvention2008.com/
Democrats grapple over next moves....
subtitle....
With no clear-cut leader, party activists struggle with how to best seat the delegates and achieve unity...
Have the Edwards delegates been eliminated? How are/were they assigned?
Hmm had not thought of that. He only has 26 delegets but he COULD control the margin of victory.
The remaining primaries tilt mostly Obama’s way, based on the electoral geography to date, and are enough to offset a big victory for Mrs Clinton in Pennsylvania in six weeks.
But between now ant then, ‘there will be blood’ !
Dean said a bunch of crap. Translating it all out of Dean’s usual punk clown talking style what he is basically saying they can have a do over if the FL and MI State Democrat party can come up with the money to pay for it.
Because the Democrat Party is headed by an idiot named Dean?
Democrats brace for a long battle
**********************EXCERPT*************************
WASHINGTON -- With no end in sight, Democrats braced Wednesday for a prolonged and nasty fight for their party's presidential nomination as Barack Obama assailed his reinvigorated rival over taxes and, in a turnabout, her experience in foreign affairs.
Hillary Rodham Clinton, in turn, renewed her assault on Obama's resume and preparedness for the White House, a line of fire that helped produce three back-to-the-wall victories that saved her campaign from extinction Tuesday.
Even with her hard-fought victories in the Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island primaries, Clinton barely narrowed Obama's lead in delegates to the party's national nominating convention. The party's proportional system for awarding delegates gave Obama fresh batches in each state, bolstering his claim to front-runner status.
Obama also won Vermont's primary and appeared to be well ahead of Clinton in the Texas caucus that followed that state's primary, ensuring him an additional trove of delegates when the results are finalized over the next few days.
Despite Obama's sustained delegate edge, there was an unmistakable shift in momentum as Clinton strategists crowed over their victories.
Obama, in a news conference, displayed a new willingness to attack, even as his opponent entertained the idea of the two running on the same ticket in November.
I’m popping more pop corn....
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