NYP: THE DEM DILEMMA: NEITHER CAN WIN

New York Post ^ | March 6, 2008 | GEOFF EARLE

[OESY]

Despite a confetti drop and a confident victory speech Tuesday night, there is virtually no way Hillary Rodham Clinton could wrap up the Democratic nomination simply by winning the remaining 12 contests ahead.

Nor, for that matter, could Barack Obama - although he maintains a thin but significant lead over Clinton among the number of delegates who get to vote at the party's convention this summer.

For either candidate to clinch the nomination, they must rely on a group of roughly 350 uncommitted "superdelegates" - lawmakers, party bigwigs and insiders who get to vote however they want at the convention.

The scenario leaves the Democratic Party facing a stalemate with a variety of chaotic endgame scenarios - and a chance that a long, bloody contest could rip the party apart while giving Republican John McCain a leg up in his White House run.

The reason for the doomsday scenario: Democrats award delegates in each state on a proportional basis. So even when a candidate scores a resounding win - as Clinton did in Ohio Tuesday night - the loser still walks away with a sizable number of delegates.

The results from Tuesday night tell the story. Clinton had one of her best nights of the campaign, but she won a net total of only 12 delegates, according to an Associated Press count, barely making a dent in Obama's delegate lead.

The contests ahead in the remaining dozen states won't change the game in a meaningful way.

If Obama runs well in Wyoming (12 delegates) and Mississippi (33 delegates), where he is favored, he could come close to erasing the gains Clinton made in two big, populous states Tuesday....

[Yankereb]

He could be. I tried, but they wouldn’t let me take my gun into the polling place, and I would have to have a gun to my head in order to vote for Hillary for anything.

[sanchmo]

The underlying question is why neither candidate looks to win an outright majority on the primaries alone. Conventional wisdom is that the Dem's proportional system doesn't let the math work out that way. But there were several opportunities of either an Obama popular upswell or a Hillary popular upswell over the past couple of months, that would have caused an obvious victory even with the proportional system.

What Dems need to worry about just as much is that the lack of a clear winner is because neither Obama or Hillary are able to "close the deal"... that as soon as one looks like they might win, the public takes a step back and admits that they don't really want that one to win... that they are excited to have 2 strong candidates but are not thrilled about the idea of either actually getting into the White House.

[kabar]

If they step in and steal the election for Hillary, they will alienate black voters, the Dems most loyal constituency, not only for this election but for many more elections to come. The Dem Party would be committing political suicide. It ain't going to happen. The SDs will vote for who has the most pledged delegates thru the primary process.

FYI: The Dems will win CA, NY, and NJ regardless of who their nominee is. They don't need TX to win.

[OESY]

Unless I'm mistaken, Democrats did not adjust the number of delegates needed to win their party's nomination after they excluded Michigan and Florida. That left their candidates short, so to speak, providing no margins for a close race. Again, they did not see the implications of moving primaries, penalizing the non-compliant states, and not reducing the nomination threhold. Clearly for ideological reasons, they also did not appreciate the merits of an Electoral College mandate that the Founders intended.

Like other half-baked national programs proposed through the years that subsequently developed unexpected dysfunctional effects, these Democrats failed to anticipate all scenarios, including the train wreck now looming that has the potential of splitting their party wide open. If there is a brutal convention fight with the "wrong" outcome, it may cause blacks (or women) to walk. But, what did they expect when they put the flower children in charge in an adult world? I'll take the CEO/manager who knows how to get things done any day.

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[Ann Archy]

The words “Selected NOT Elected” sound familiar, Democrats??? HAHAHHAHAHHHAHAHAH

[Ann Archy]

No Battle.....the Clintons will NEVER let a BLACK GUY BEAT THEM and Obama is such an empty suit, he will just FOLD!!

[Ann Archy]

Hillary was NEVER going to Quit...NEVER!

[exit82]

“That’s funny, the 17th Amendment basically changed the election of Senators from an appointment by officials to a popular vote. Now these Senators are going to go through a popular vote contest only to be chosen via an appointment by officials.”

That was blindingly brilliant! Don’t let anyone steal that thought!

[mainerforglobalwarming]

We’ll see. I think once the clintons threaten to cut off funding to the democrat party, the superdelegates will fall into line but what do I know.

[OESY]

ONLY GORE CAN STOP A MELTDOWN

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