Hillary’s Prospects: Dim, But Not Dead

Patterico's Pontifications ^ | March 06, 2008 | Staff

[jdm]

One day after her big victory, Hillary’s prospects are looking dim, as her only chance at seating delegations from Michigan and Florida appears to rest on an unlikely do-over in one or both states.

Howard Dean will not bend the party rules to grandfather in the disputed delegates from Michigan and Florida, the Democratic party chairman said in a statement today.

Instead, he put the state parties on notice: either they can wait and allow the credentials committee to decide whether to seat their delegates, or submit to a re-vote sanctioned under DNC rules. “We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time,” he said in the statement.

“Everyone seems to be asking what the DNC will do,” a Democrat close to Dean said. “But the question is: what will the state parties do.”

Dean’s statement implies that he has no intention of changing the rules to accommodate any solution proposed by the candidates or the state parties. There has been some suggestion that the two remaining presidential candidates might try to broker a deal among themselves. His line in the sand narrows the options for Hillary Clinton’s campaign because it is unlikely that a credentials committee would endorse a delegation congenial to her mathematical interests.

So Hillary’s only realistic chance to seat Michigan and/or Florida delegations is a do-over in those states. And the prospect of a do-over in Florida looks rather dim:

Karen Thurman, the chair of the Florida Democratic Party, issued a statement late Wednesday that seemed to discount the possibility of a second primary.

Ouch.

Without the Florida or Michigan delegations, Hillary’s best bet is convincing superdelegates that she is the most electable candidate. It’s a tough argument to make; after all, a lot of us out here are slavering for a Hillary victory precisely because we think she’d be easier to beat. And the possibility of superdelegates erasing an Obama lead is ripe for long-lasting resentment — a prospect that makes us conservatives drool with anticipation.

For my money, the best argument she has is expressed here by Demosophist at Winds of Change:

Just for the sake of argument, if we . . . looked at only those states that award their delegates on the basis of a popular vote primary (ignoring caucus states for the moment) and employ a winner-take-all rule, such as the number of electoral college delegates that represent those states in a general election, Clinton has won over three times as many electors as Obama! This is the case even though Obama actually has more votes. . . . By my count, and excluding MI and FL, that’s 71 electors for Obama and 224 for Clinton!

If Hillary can convince superdelegates that she has an edge, given the winner-take-all rules that will apply in a general election, she could just pull this off.

But the uphill battle she faces on the Florida and Michigan delegations is a hard blow.

[mainerforglobalwarming]

If hillary wins PA big and closes to within 40 or 50 delegates heading into denver, she's the nominee. She won't need do-overs in Fla and Michighan. Pledged delegates and superdelegates will flock to her. The key for me is whether or not Obama will accept the veep. I hope he says no. and perhaps the Resko trial will hurt his chances. If he's not on the ticket, all hillary’s scheming at the convention will amount to McCain carrying 40 states.

[freedomlover]

"hard blow" (snicker snicker)

[capt. norm]

A do-over in Michigan would be great for Obama....no way Hillary can win (fairly) there.

[Sig Sauer P220]

Yep. The important thing is to keep them from both being on the ticket. Its all over if that happens.

[mainerforglobalwarming]

We'll find out if obama is just another democrat or if he has a shred of decency and walks away from the veep. I'm not sure. Some people believe he'll take the veep, because he's as power hungry as the rest. We'll find out in august. That is unless obama finds a way to regain momentum. And right now I can't see that happening.

[steveyp]

I love all the money being dumped into these campaigns, and now if FLA and MI do a do-over that is even more money siphoned away from the general. Both of these candidates have to be raising Primary and General money and only one of them will be able to use the General stockpile of Cash, right?

[SunkenCiv]

“Howard Dean... put the state parties on notice: either they can wait and allow the credentials committee to decide whether to seat their delegates, or submit to a re-vote sanctioned under DNC rules.”

IOW, see if the credentials committee will seat the delegates regardless of the earlier ruling and the so-called rules of the Dhimmicratic Party, thus denying any Michigan delegates to Obama (the word at the time of the Michigan primary was that Obama supporters voted for “uncommitted”, as Hillary’s name was the only one on the ballot) and I’m not sure what out of Florida’s delegation; or, nothing, because there will NOT be a revote, and the credentials committee will HAVE TO seat the delegations as is.

The good news is, regardless of what they do, they’ll lose the election, and we’ll get to spend another four years listening to their whining about it, and blaming someone besides themselves. Oh, and observe the drive-by media trying to change the memory of what actually took place.

[SunkenCiv]

Democratic Debacle (1964 convention, repercussions today)
America Heritage | July 2004 (cover date) | Joshua Zeitz
Posted on 07/28/2004 12:59:49 AM EDT by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1179981/posts