Replies

However, the wing has just about the right size for the 650 pax 380-900 or the ULH -800R. That's when the A380 will really begin to shine and the CASM will be extreme hard to beat.

Perhaps on routes like LHR-HKG where some airlines currently have 2 or 3 747-400's taking off within an hour of each other and there are not very many optimal time windows for taking off due to time zone differences, flight lenght, and airport curfews. For shorter flights where there are lots of competitive flights operating at various times of day, it won't be too popular. Even though JFK-LHR has a huge number of flights every day, the trend is for smaller planes rather than bigger ones to allow more frequency.

Even though JFK-LHR has a huge number of flights every day, the trend is for smaller planes rather than bigger ones to allow more frequency.

To be precise: Few of the existing routes that see 747 operations today will be switched to 787s tomorrow. As you said, certain routes and markets demand very large aircraft, take Frankfurt-Tokyo for example. The next logical and most cost effective step is an A380 instead of downsizing to say a 777 and 787 or two 777s. Both the markets for VLAs and medium sized jets will continue to grow over the foreseeable future, only that for medium sized jets at a faster pace.