Posted on 03/01/2008 1:04:08 PM PST by trumandogz
The Republican race for Harris County district attorney seems headed for a runoff and the party's contest for county judge looks tantalizingly tight as the GOP advantage in local general elections fades away, according to a poll conducted for the Houston Chronicle.
Prosecutor Kelly Siegler and former Judge Pat Lykos lead police Capt. Doug Perry and defense lawyer Jim Leitner in the race for district attorney, but about half of voters likely to participate in Tuesday's primary were undecided last week, the Zogby International poll indicated.
If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to an April 8 runoff that will crown the Republican nominee against Democrat C.O. Bradford, the former Houston police chief.
In the primary for chief of Harris County government, former District Clerk Charles Bacarisse and incumbent Ed Emmett are running evenly, and a third of likely Republican voters are undecided, according to the survey. On the Democratic side, businessman David Mincberg appears headed for the nomination over businessman Ahmad Hassan.
GOP losing advantage
Perhaps more clear in the poll results is the loss of a Republican advantage over Democrats in local contests that will be decided in November. Of the 604 voters surveyed Wednesday and Thursday, 42 percent said they will vote for a Democrat for county leadership positions, and 40 percent said they will vote for a Republican.
Similarly, 41 percent said they will vote Democratic in local judicial races in November and 37 percent said they will vote Republican.
The results essentially are a tie on both questions because the poll has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
With the Texas Democratic presidential primary producing enthusiasm within the local party, 46 percent of those surveyed identified themselves as Democrats, 38 percent as Republicans and 16 percent as independents.
This gives Democrats a statistical advantage of at least 4 percentage points, considering the margin of error.
Dems hope for comeback
No Democrat has won an election for a countywide seat in more than 10 years. Democrats fielded a full slate of candidates for those positions this year because they are encouraged by demographic changes and a documented nationwide retreat from voter enthusiasm about Republican identity.
The dominant portion of undecided voters in the Republican primary for district attorney probably is the result of none of the contenders being a familiar name in local politics, according to Fritz Wenzel, communications director for Zogby International.
Rosenthal opened door
Republican District Attorney Chuck Rosenthal had a clear path to the nomination until the disclosure in late December of e-mails on his government computer that contained sexist and racist material, notices about his re-election campaign and romantic notes to his executive secretary. He withdrew from the ballot, producing a situation in which four candidates had to mount instant campaigns.
Since then, Rosenthal resigned.
Among the voters in the survey who are likely to cast ballots in the Republican primary, 21 percent chose Siegler, 14 percent Lykos, 7 percent Perry and 6 percent Leitner.
The margin of error for these results goes up to 5.4 percentage points because the number of voters questioned is less than the 604 in the entire survey.
County judge race tied
In the county judge primary, Bacarisse pulled 34 percent and Emmett 31 percent, with the same margin of error — a statistical tie, in other words. Emmett has been in office about a year and Bacarisse was the elected district clerk, making them more familiar to GOP voters than the candidates for district attorney.
Mincberg had a lead of 19 percentage points over Ahmad in the Democratic primary, with more than half of the voters undecided, according to poll results.
I do not think Harris Co. will go Dem but Rosenthal scandal is not helping the GOP Cause in the area.
ping
And the fact that a great many Republicans are voting in the Democrat primary this time around. Obviously, in the general election that will mean nothing.
Don’t you think that the Republicans in a poll would say that they were Republicans and simply go vote in the Democrat Primary against Hillary?
Isn’t this just an unintended consequence of the Katrina Victim Relocation Program?
I can’t answer your questions. I’m just saying that, since you can’t vote for any Republican for this particular office - when you ask for the Democrat ballot so as to influence the Obama vs. Hillary issue in Texas - that the Democrats will get quite a few votes for their candidates. If enough Republicans do this, the number one vote getter of all candidates for this particular office might be a Democrat.
Running RINO McAmnesty for president will do that.
We want liberals to join our party after they see the error of their ways, not because we are like them now.
This is really gonna screw the party on many levels.
The Katrina Relocation Program would only account for 4% of the total voting population of Houston.
Poll finds polls suck!
Okay. I accept your analysis as correct. But I’m not seeing anything very encouraging in the results of the various causes.
However, there are not enough Katrina Refugees left in Harris County to swing it from GOP to Democrat.
If you can find some mistake with the sampling methodology of this poll please let us know. However, simply saying that a poll sucks because it does not meet your expectations is silly.
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