Replies

A situation caused to a large extend by Republican bigots like Baker.

Please. Facts are stubborn things. The Jewish vote in this country has historically gone overwhelming Dem and in some cases, socialist, long before James Baker and other Rep "bigots" came on the scene.

Here is the Jewish Vote In Presidential Elections from 1916 onwards

Thanks for the Jewish Prez vote data...I had often wondered if the Jewish vote was eternally captured by the Soviet Plantation/Demorats! SO BO will not have to worry about losing this group as he runs in the General?

Absolutely, and in the 1980s under Ronald Reagan it moved up to the mid 30% range, 39-31-35 per your numbers.

James Baker's message of *uck you to that 35% of Jews who pulled the R lever, along with the choice of a perceived bigot who had written Holocaust denial pieces and characterized the first Gulf war as Christians dying for Jews, contributed to taking 39-31-35 to 11% in 1992.

Do you think that was a good thing for the GOP?

Do you think foreign policy should be determined by demographic voting trends?

It is interesting to note that until 1920, Jewish voters were nearly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. The earliest voting records probably are more reflective of Jews of German and Sephardic background, who were generally assimilated and had middle class or better income levels. The large influx of Eastern European Jews, mostly working class, shifted the vote to the left, as particularly reflected in the totals for radical candidates like Eugene Debs, Robert La Follette, and Henry Wallace. Interestingly, in 1964, Jewish voters rejected the first Presidential candidate of Jewish background, Barry Goldwater (though he was born and raised as an Episcopalian), by a 9:1 margin.

Whatever James Baker's connection to the McCain candidacy, it is hard to believe that Obama will perform as strongly with Jewish voters as Bill Clinton, Al Gore, or John Kerry did. New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California are probably too "blue" to be affected by a drop in Jewish support for the Democratic nominee to 60-65%, due to his Muslim connection via his father's family. But it could be useful for GOP hopes in Florida, and to a lesser extent in Ohio and Pennsylvania.