I don't know that you can do any real electoral calculus based on this incident. Which votes will he lose? The "pout in the corner conservative" vote? Would he have gotten it anyway? Will this actually lose him votes?
By the same token, how many votes might he gain from the undecideds, by setting himself apart from "talk radio conservatives?" How many votes might he steal from Obama?
My guess is that it probably helped McCain more than it hurt him. And I don't know that it actually hurts him even among conservatives. For example, I'm a conservative who has come to loathe conservative talk radio, as it tends to actively discourage any actual intellectual engagemement with serious issues. I'm kinda glad to see the loudmouths get slapped down now and again.
Maybe.
Would he have gotten it anyway?
I give you 2006.
Will this actually lose him votes?
Probably; it will depend upon how Cunningham responds. There are people who call talk shows daily. Nobody knows how much the effect will be. Were I one of McCain's people, I'd be on the phone begging for forgiveness.
IMO it won't happen; this is an Islamic Marxist's election to lose in a Bob Dole redux because McLame will do the famed RINO swan dive.
You can thank the RNC.
Your guess is as good as mine, but I’m one of those not voting for McCain here in Florida, and everytime I waiver in that and begin to think maybe, just maybe I could hold my nose, McCain comes out and reminds me again how much contempt he has for people like me.