The New York Times count has only allocated 34 of Wisconsin’s delegates, but assume all 37 pledged delegates went to McCain. According to the numbers below, that would leave him needing 358 of 524 remaining bound delegates (just over 68%) to guarantee nomination on the convention’s first ballot. What concerns me is that liberal journalists and members of the Republican establishment seem to be succeeding at brainwashing Republican voters into believing Governor Huckabee is running a vanity campaign. Scott “McCain” Rasmu-spin’s daily tracking poll showed McCain’s lead narrowing from 31 points (55%-24%) to 12 points (45%-33%) during February 9-13. As of Saturday it was back to 53%-29%:
Still, Governor Huckabee is showing remarkable staying power considering the way the media is presenting—or rather not presenting—the race.
How John McCain may still lose the nomination
By Jay Rogers
February 14, 2008
The John McCain camp informed us yesterday that it is mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win the nomination. What they won’t say is that McCain stands a good chance of losing the nomination as long as Huckabee stays in the race.
Huckabee only has to win half of the remaining delegates to block McCain from the nomination. And even if he falls a few short of that, many of the delegates in McCain’s column will be unbound delegates who may in fact vote for anyone they choose on the first ballot...
The McCain camp thinks the “mathematically impossible” rhetorical ploy will hide a few obvious facts from the voting public, who tend to believe the media pundits rather than research how the nomination process actually works...
McCain will not be the nominee until he has 1,191 bound delegates pledged to him...
There are 774 delegates left to win. If John McCain has exactly 814 delegates (and 18 of these are unbound delegates who are still able to change their mind), then he needs an additional 387 to clinch the nomination with 1,191.
Ironically half of 774 is exactly 387... Huckabee only needs to get 51 percent of the remaining delegates to block McCain...
Even though McCain is the delegate leader, unless he reaches 1,191 delegates, he cannot win in the first round of the convention. If he loses and it goes to the second round, he is not guaranteed any of those delegates...
McCain currently has 796 bound delegates and 18 unbound delegates. McCain needs 395 bound delegates to reach 1,191 in the remaining states.
Now here’s the math ...
Wisconsin - 37 bound and 3 unbound
Puerto Rico - 20 bound and 3 unbound
Texas - 137 bound and 3 unbound
Ohio - 0 bound and 88 unbound
Rhode Island - 17 bound and 3 unbound
Vermont - 17 bound
Mississippi - 36 bound and 3 unbound
Pennsylvania - 0 bound and 74 unbound
North Carolina - 69 bound
Indiana - 27 bound and 30 unbound
Nebraska - 30 bound and 3 unbound
Hawaii - 20 bound
Kentucky - 45 bound
Oregon - 27 bound and 3 unbound
Idaho - 26 bound and 6 unbound
New Mexico - 29 bound and 3 unbound
South Dakota - 24 bound and 3 unbound
There are 561 bound delegates left. If we are speaking of the number of bound delegates that John McCain must win, then he needs 71% of the remaining 561 to reach 1,191 bound delegates.
Huckabee will probably win Mississippi, Nebraska, Kentucky, and South Dakota. If this happens, then McCain would have to win just about every remaining delegate to be guaranteed enough bound delegates to win the nomination, and that is not likely to happen...
The media pundits lump both bound and unbound delegates in their totals. This is very misleading. Huckabee may block McCain in the first round delegate vote at the convention and then win on a second, third or fourth ballot. Until someone has a majority, the candidates keep striking deals and the delegates keep voting.
Abraham Lincoln won the nomination on the fourth ballot in the Republican convention in 1860 although William Seward was the pre-convention favorite.
So while unlikely, if there is enough dissent in the GOP come summer, McCain could be denied the nomination if he doesn’t have enough bound delegates. But more likely, if he falls short of 1,191 in both bound and unbound delegates, then a conservative coalition could arise that would nominate Huckabee or another conservative as the Republican candidate ...