Posted on 02/19/2008 10:40:41 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
Following the Feb. 12 assassination of Imad Mughniyah, one of Hezbollah’s top military commanders, many threats and warnings have been issued concerning a retribution attack against Israel, which has been blamed for — or credited with — the attack. The threats have come from Hezbollah and Iranian leaders, while the warnings have come from the Israeli and U.S. governments.
Although the unfolding story continues to make headlines, the warnings we have seen have not included any time frame. This means that most of the people concerned about them will be on alert in the near term but will, as is human nature, begin to relax as time passes and no retaliatory attack materializes. Organizations such as Hezbollah, however, typically do not retaliate immediately. Even in a case of a government with a professional and well-armed military, retaliatory strikes take time to plan, approve and implement. For example, nearly two weeks passed before U.S. cruise missiles struck targets in Afghanistan and Sudan following the Aug. 7, 1998, al Qaeda bombing of the U.S. Embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Even an organization such as Hezbollah that has created contingency attack plans needs time to dispatch operatives, conduct surveillance, gather materials, construct a bomb and then employ it. Indeed, a review of Hezbollah’s past retaliatory attacks demonstrates a lag of at least a month between the causi belli and the retaliatory attacks. In our estimation, therefore, any Hezbollah retaliatory strike will occur in mid-March at the earliest, though Hezbollah sympathizers not acting as part of the organization could respond more rapidly with attacks that require less planning and preparation.
(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...
Because of the lag time, by the time the real period of danger approaches, many of the deterrent security measures put in place immediately after the warnings were issued will have been relaxed and security postures at potential targets will have returned to business as usual.
Threats and Warnings
Israeli sources have said the Israeli government placed its diplomatic posts on higher alert Feb. 13 following threats of retaliation over the Mughniyah assassination. Israeli officials believe Hezbollah is unlikely to launch attacks within Israel, but rather is more likely to attack Israeli diplomatic posts.
Inside the United States, the FBI has put its domestic terrorism squads and joint terrorism task force agents on alert for any threats against synagogues and other potential Jewish targets in the United States. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security also have sent a bulletin to state and local law enforcement authorities advising them to watch for potential retaliatory strikes by Hezbollah, and the bureau has made contact with potential domestic targets to convey this warning. The FBI also is stepping up its preventative surveillance coverage on known or suspected Hezbollah operatives in an attempt to thwart any plot inside the United States.
Many state and major local police agencies also have issued warnings and analytical reports pertaining to a potential Hezbollah retaliatory attack. These departments obviously take the threat very seriously and believe their warnings are highly justified.
Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah spoke at Mughniyah’s funeral, he said Mughniyah’s assassination is a further incentive to proceed with the jihad against Israel and that the timing, location and method of Mughniyah’s assassination indicate that the state of Israel (referred to as Zionists by Nasrallah) wants open war. Nasrallah then said, “Zionists, if you want this kind of open war, let the whole world listen: Let this war be open.”
Hezbollah lawmaker Ismail Sukeyir said, “Hezbollah has the right to retaliate anywhere in the world and in any way it sees fit.”
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander-in-chief Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari reportedly noted in a condolence letter to Nasrallah, “In the near future, we will witness the destruction of the cancerous existence of Israel by the powerful and competent hands of the Hezbollah combatants.”
Although Hezbollah has not conducted an attack outside of the region in many years, it possesses the infrastructure, capability and talent to do so today. As we have said, we believe that Hezbollah is a far more capable and dangerous organization than al Qaeda at the present time. That said, Hezbollah has changed considerably since the 1980s. It no longer is just an amorphous resistance organization. Rather, it is a legitimate political party and a significant player in Lebanese politics.
Some U.S. counterterrorism sources have even characteriz ed these cries as “unprecedented.” Certainly they are more strident and numerous than those following the loss of any Hezbollah cadre member in recent memory.
Such an outcry is significant because it places a considerable amount of pressure on the Hezbollah leadership to retaliate. Indeed, Hezbollah may be concerned that it is now has infrastructure that can be attacked, but its survival of sustained airstrikes during the 2006 conflict with Israel could lead it to believe its infrastructure can weather Israeli retaliatory strikes. However, we believe it is unlikely at this point that Hezbollah will do anything that it calculates will precipitate another all-out war with Israel.
Tactical Factors
One of the tactics Hezbollah has used successfully throughout its existence is a combination of ambiguity, stealth and confusion. The group frequently prefers to hide its hand, or sow confusion by claiming its attacks using pseudonyms, such as Islamic Jihad Organization or Organization for the Oppressed of the Earth. Any retribution attack against Israeli targets, therefore, will likely be conducted in such a way as to hide any direct links to the organization and be designed to obscure Hezbollah’s responsibility — or at least create some degree of plausible deniability. One example of this was the group’s use of Palestinian rather than Lebanese operatives in the 1994 London bombings.
Another tactical factor worth consideration is that Hezbollah uses an “off-the-shelf” method of planning. This is a method of planning used by the military commands of many countries in which several hypothetical targets are selected and attack plans for each are developed in advance. This advance planning gives the Hezbollah leadership several plans to choose from when considering and authorizing an attack — and it allows the group to hit hard and fast once a decision has been made to strike — far more quickly that if it had to plan an operation from scratch
In the years since Hezbollah’s last overseas attack, its operatives have been seen conducting surveillance in many parts of the world (including the United States) — at times, triggering arrests — but no attacks have ensued. Therefore, it is believed that these operatives have been observed conducting surveillance for use in preliminary operational planning for hypothetical, future attacks. It is believed that the leadership of Hezbollah’s military wing has a large selection of off-the-shelf plans that it can choose from should it decide to mount attacks anywhere in the world. In all probability, therefore, targets for off-the-shelf plans already have been mapped. Ironically, many of these plans that might be activated in retribution for Mughniyah’s death could have been designed by Mughniyah himself.
As far as timing goes, using the Buenos Aires and London attacks as a gauge, we believe Hezbollah, should it choose to retaliate, would be able to attack within four to five weeks — perhaps around the infamous Ides of March — and probably not too much sooner due to operational considerations. However in the time between now and mid-March, Hezbollah operatives likely will be conducting surveillance to tune up a number of off-the-shelf plans in expectation of having a particular plan activated. As we have discussed on many occasions, surveillance is conducted at various stages of the attack cycle, and it is during these periods of surveillance that operatives are vulnerable to detection. Detecting surveillance on a potential target will be an indication that the target is being considered, though certainly Hezbollah will also conduct surveillance on other targets in an effort so sow confusion as to its ultimate plans.
The Coming Attack?
If an attack is launched, we anticipate that it will have to be a spectacular one in order to meet the requirements of reciprocity, given that Mughniyah was very important to Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsors. Merely killing an Israeli soldier or two in an ambush will not suffice. Also, in keeping with Hezbollah’s proclivity toward using a hidden hand, the attack will likely be conducted by a stealthy and ambiguous cell or cells and have no direct connections to the organization. Also, as we have seen in prior attacks, if a hardened target such as an Israeli embassy or VIP is not vulnerable, a secondary soft target can be selected. The AMIA bombing is a prime example of this and should serve as a warning to Jewish community centers and other non-Israeli government targets everywhere that even non-Israeli Jewish targets are considered fair game.
Operationally, Hezbollah would prefer to hit a target that is unsuspecting and easy to attack. That is why we would not be surprised to see an attack in Asia, Latin America or even Africa. Hezbollah’s 1994 attacks in London were not very effective due to the small size of the devices — a result of the difficulty of obtaining explosives in the United Kingdom
One other thing to consider is that Israeli diplomatic facilities do not have the same level of physical security that most U.S. facilities do, and in many places are located in office buildings or even in ordinary houses. In places like San Salvador, there is absolutely no comparison between the U.S. Embassy, which was built to Inman standards, and the Israeli Embassy. In other words, like Buenos Aires in 1992, Israeli diplomatic facilities are relatively easy targets in many parts of the world.
Of course, Hezbollah might not be planning one of Mughniyah’s signature VBIED attacks. As we saw on 9/11, spectacular attacks can come in forms other than a VBIED. While Mughniyah was a VBIED expert, he also was a consummate out-of-the-box thinker. Therefore, it is just possible that the retribution attacks would be carried out in a novel, yet spectacular, manner
At the present time, Hezbollah is far larger and more geographically widespread than ever before, with a global array of members and supporters who are intertwined with sophisticated finance/logistics and intelligence networks. Also, thanks to Iran, Hezbollah has far more — and better-trained — operational cadres than ever before. The Hezbollah cadre also is well experienced in skullduggery, having conducted scores of transnational militant operations before al Qaeda was even formed.
The war continues. Stakes get higher daily and if I hear one more foggy bottom idiot telling Israel or the American people a land for peace deal( Jerusalem for peace??) or Olmert will actually work, why I’ll, I’ll....um pray the Israeli bombs continue to hit their targets, and hope to God we vote a person that really considers Israel an ally.
Mughniyah needed dying, no doubt. But I certainly had a begrudging respect for his manner. No loose talk, just action. Deranged of course, but he was totally devoted to his cause and not to building him self up to be some silly-ass Imam or Sheik or Emir or Ayatollah, whatever.
ping
This amplifies what I was saying yesterday, confirming the timing and adding an unconsidered aspect.
Not a lot of US heightened alert after the 9/6 nuke facility raid. Quite a bit of heightened US alert now. Conscience at work?
An indicator, a maybe, little more, but worth consideration.
While on ping, we missed a deadline recently. IAEA gave Iran till Feb 9 to “disclose all” regarding their nuke program. Lots of fanfare at the time the ultimatum was issued, not a peep since.
More fuel for the fire along the diplo track. Also, AQ can strike without thr risk of subjecting a state sponsor to retribution.
Hezbollah can’t.
Pelosi’s Reckless Gamble on FISA
Imad Mughniyeh, RIH: His Relatives and Operatives’ Relatives Thrive in Dearbornistan
And just for giggles....
but... Hezbollah are just “freedom fighters” I mean like the AMIA bombing in Argentina...
and ping.
Israel is planning to assassinate senior figures of Hezbollah, Hamas and even Iran after killing Imad Mugniyah in Syria, a new report says. A Sunday Times report earlier had said that Mossad had killed the senior commander using an explosive device planted in the headrest of the driver’s seat in his car.
“After Mugniyah there will be a second stage and a third stage, which will target Hezbollah and Hamas and perhaps even Iran,” the report said—
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=43969§ionid=351020202
I hope they’re having a good freak out.
Too bad Hizballah has already been doing surveillance in the US for 20 years. They are probably not stupid enough to attack the US, but Jewish targets in the thrid world are likely targets.
Go IDF!
16:40 IDF Chief of Staff: I can`t promise there won`t be a major conflict soon (Army Radio)
Lebanese Political Journal
http://lebop.blogspot.com/
SNIP
Not only are Israelis worried, but Bergman says Americans should be concerned too: “an inkling of how the group might respond can be found in the July 2007 statements of Michael McConnell, America’s director of national intelligence, expressing grave apprehension about Hezbollah sleeper cells in the United States that could go into action should the Americans cross the organization’s “red line.””
Nicholas Blanford argues,
Western intelligence agencies have long held the view that Hezbollah has global reach through networks based in Lebanese Shia communities scattered around the world.
“I know there is a debate about this, but not among those of us who have seen the intelligence material. We know Hezbollah has global reach,” a former FBI counter-terrorism officer once told the author.
Most of these cells are engaged in fundraising, but they also keep potential targets under surveillance, according to these intelligence sources. In 2002, a secret FBI briefing to the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence concluded that while Hezbollah had the assets to conduct attacks in the US, its “extensive fundraising” activities reduced the chances of such a decision being made.
If Hezbollah brazenly attacks an American or Israeli target, there are sure to be repercussions in Lebanon, which will effect all Lebanese. However, the response might not be similar to those in Buenos Aires. Imad Mughnieh is claimed to have been involved in two other major activities:
1) recruiting non-Shia informants for his war;
2) training groups in Iraq.
Given that both Hezbollah and Iran claim Mughnieh as one of their own, they could easily harness their combined intelligence and tactical capabilities (if do not already do this - case in point, Mughnieh) to target Israeli agents within and outside of Israel, cause further chaos in Iraq, or hit the American allies in the Arabian Gulf and Egypt, which they have previously threatened.
What concerns me most is not Hezbollah’s anger about Mughnieh’s assassination, but that of Iran. How far is Iran willing to go? And how will Hezbollah assist them? Then again, these are the questions Lebanese, Israeli, and international analysts have posed all along. The only difference is that those analysts envisioning a tame, democratic Hezbollah have been proven utterly wrong.
Note: President Bush is also set to return to Jerusalem in May.
All the emperors are naked, we have a crisis in leadership in the United States, Europe and Israel. The situation’s getting worse, and I see no one willing and able to stand up for change today. As we say in Hebrew – Ein im mi ledaber. There’s no one to speak to. We Israelis are giving up hope. More are leaving on both sides, or waiting for another fullscale war.
Humanity deserves better leadership than this. Peace in our time? I wonder.
Angela Godfrey-Goldstein -Tuesday, February 19, 2008
http://www.icahd.org/eng/news.asp?menu=5&submenu=1&item=567
Iran's embassy rejects allegation of Saudi daily 'Al-Jazira'
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On a related note....
On another blog I read the following. All I can say is God Speed in cutting the head off the snake. The whole world would be a much better place with out Nasrallah.
“I hear from my sources that current Hezbollah chief, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, may be next. In preparation, Iran picked a new Hezbo leader. Stay tuned for that story. The new dude has strong Detroit/Dearbornistan ties, too.”
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